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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

New supply routes for Afghanistan

The NYTimes recovers the story we've been reading for awhile, that the US military is trying to re-lay its supply routes into Afghanistan. I got a little curious, so I looked up a few maps.

The current supply line lands at Karachi (port city at the bend,) then follows up the river to Peshawar (in the very north of the country,) and then cuts across the Khyber Pass to Kabul. It's about 700 miles.

The new proposed supply lines either land in the Black Sea, likely in Russia, travel north around the Caspian (Iran to the south,) travel a great distance through Kazakhstan, and then travel south through the next group of 'stans into Kabul from the north or, an alternate route would be Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Caspian, then the Russia, Turkmenistan, etc, etc.

It seems to hold lots of potential future complications, from Russia and continued goodwill across a whole bunch of tin pot totalitarians, but, on the other hand, it does relieve some of the leverage Pakistan now holds if you want to get tougher with them.

"Never fight a land war in Asia," right?

28 Comments:

  • ...or we resupply via airdrops from stealth bombers. That would work. Or the Shuttle.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:09 AM  

  • You laugh, but, according to this NYTimes article, there will be no munitions allowed along this route meaning that all that would have to be flown in.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 7:31 AM  

  • Very interesting post.
    Turkmenistan is "problematic", of course. While relatively safe, the new government is wary of irritating Russia, which is the source of much of their income (GAZPROM). Armenia and Azerbaijan have trouble with organised crime, meaning large "protection" payments that would finance further de-stabilisation.
    As we have seen over the past few years, Turkey's co-operation is no longer a done deal, either.

    Aside from any one of three countries having the ability to shut off their part of the supply route on a capricious whim, we would most likely just be giving Russia the leverage that we have given Pakistan up to now.

    Any northern route through India and Jammu/Kashmir has serious issues, as well.

    This one of the primary reasons the British Empire had to leave Afghanistan - long, long supply routes. The Soviet Union had serious supply route difficulties, too, and they bordered Afghanistan.

    While it sounds crazy on the face of it, Iran might be the best option. They have strong interests in seeing their border stabilised, have a better port/highway infrastructure, better security and much less corruption. We would not only have to abandon the entire demonising of their country, of course, but would also have to stab our Baluchi "contras" in the back.
    Or just launch yet another ill-fated invasion of Iran to secure our other ill-fated invasions.

    By Blogger Todd Dugdale , at 11:21 AM  

  • First off, I don't think we can transit through India to fight in Afghanistan. The India/PAkistan history would make that way too complex.

    And, I'm prone to agree on Iran being a potentially reasonable choice, we're talking about food and infrastructure, not munitions, but I can't imagine this administration or the next would want to give Iran that sort of power against all the other negotiations.

    I think Turkey would cooperate in this. And there is the potential Russian issues if we go through Armenia or Azerbaijan. Russia will be so wary of anything US on their borders.

    No matter where it goes, we pretty much we have to strike the deal with Russia. They're rivals, but they're very pragmatic. It'll cost us, but we'll be dealing with someone consistent.

    But my real fear is that we'll end up getting into some nasty business, propping up, and bribing some pretty nasty people in this process.

    Frankly, I don't know what else to do, though, especially if you're going to start working on Pakistan.

    Again, "Never start a land war in Asia."

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 11:35 AM  

  • First off, I don't think we can transit through India to fight in Afghanistan. The India/Pakistan history would make that way too complex.

    Agreed. It would be an attractive option for India, with all of the difficulties Pakistan presents, and adding China as the "leverage".

    I can't imagine this administration or the next would want to give Iran that sort of power against all the other negotiations.

    It would be a "hard sell". Still, I think it would give Iran a much-needed opportunity to appear as one of the "good guys". As Americans, we often forget that we were the ones that backed the brutal Shah. This could be a real chance at reconciliation, and one that I think the real powers in Iran would be reluctant to be irresponsible with.

    No matter where it goes, we pretty much we have to strike the deal with Russia. They're rivals, but they're very pragmatic. It'll cost us, but we'll be dealing with someone consistent.

    Hmm. My take on the reality of dealing with Russia is that it comes down to dealing with organised crime, which on the local level is the real power, especially in the "frontier". Russia tends to look bad if we succeed in Afghanistan where they failed. They also have the ability to create 'difficulties' through proxies while maintaining plausible deniability. I also see Russia as a country with multiple layers of power, each with multiple interests, each of which would need to be satisfied, and many of those interests are not our own. Not "consistent".

    But my real fear is that we'll end up getting into some nasty business, propping up, and bribing some pretty nasty people in this process.

    Me too.
    The more "parties" you have involved, the more likely this is. Also, the more likely it is that the disparate parties' interests do not coincide.
    Which is why I come back to Iran: one party, in firm control, with excellent infrastructure and no corruption, with a motivation to see us succeed. They are beyond Russia's control. They desperately need hard currency. It is also an excellent way to deal with the Shia opposition to the Iraqi occupation. Bush could not pull this off, but I think that Obama has the "fresh start" that would enable him to make it work long enough and create the maximum amount of good will compared to any other option.

    It still would be a major challenge, but one that offers large potential dividends - possibly ones that pay off in Afghanistan itself. It is the demonising of Islamic states that has largely brought us to this point. If we could be seen as willing to co-operate with and respect another Islamic state, it could go very far in propaganda terms.

    Yes, we can.

    By Blogger Todd Dugdale , at 5:58 PM  

  • I broadly agree with your Iran point. It would also force cooperation and likely reinforce trust. The Iranians have proven themselves to be pretty pragmatic over the last decade in that they do what works for them.

    On Russia, yes and no. Yes, there would have to be concessions to the locals, but it's my impression that if Putin told a local to do something they would. I think they have a practical working relationship crossing over into the gangs and industry.

    Really what I meant in that sentence, though, wasn't so much about activities in Russia. I meant that to work with Russia's neighboring governments, even if we didn't go through Russia, would require a deal with the Russians.

    ....

    Overall, To me, this whole thing looks like a huge potential mess, and the only way it makes sense is if we're about to go harder against Pakistan. I see this as a possible dark omen of a next phase.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 9:28 PM  

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