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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Thursday, November 27, 2008

The Iraq SoFA passes the Iraqi Parliament

The Iraq SoFA passed the Iraqi parliament today, however, the part that interested me was this late inclusion.
The Shiite bloc agreed to a Sunni demand that the pact be put to a referendum by July 30.

Now, no Iraq election takes place on time, so I would expect this to push later, but at the same time, I would think that if those opposed to a US presence wanted to, the could easily generate enough resistance to get this pact turned down in referendum. If it is rejected, the US withdraws 1 year from the referendum date, so a mid-2010 date might be likely.

Later: One more thing. "Lawmakers voted with a show of hands, and an exact breakdown of the parliamentary vote was not immediately available."

That should tell you how politically volatile this is. Nobody wanted to go on the record for this vote.

Also as a worry,

The English version has not been made public, and US officials in Washington have said there may be a dispute between the two sides over the interpretation of certain parts of the agreement.
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