I wonder if Drudge will headline with this poll?
Either the trackers are a little too tight at about Obama +7, or the set piece polls are a little too loose. NBC/WSJ Obama 52-42.
However, alot of the internals are consistent across multiple polls. Obama's judgment preferred over McCain's, Dem enthusiasm, independents favoring Obama, and a catastrophic Palin fail.
And, Don't miss this from yesterday's ABC/WaPo (Obama 53-44,)
That's 47 points. ABC/WaPo gets to their Obama +9 assuming an identical new voter turnout to 2004. Do you think that's likely?
However, alot of the internals are consistent across multiple polls. Obama's judgment preferred over McCain's, Dem enthusiasm, independents favoring Obama, and a catastrophic Palin fail.
And, Don't miss this from yesterday's ABC/WaPo (Obama 53-44,)
Among people who’ve voted previously, Obama and McCain are at 50-47 percent in this ABC News/Washington Post poll, not a statistically significant gap. But first-time voters favor Obama by a lopsided 73-26 percent, lifting him to an overall advantage.
That's 47 points. ABC/WaPo gets to their Obama +9 assuming an identical new voter turnout to 2004. Do you think that's likely?
posted by mikevotes at
6:02 PM
4 Comments:
But first-time voters favor Obama by a lopsided 73-26 percent, lifting him to an overall advantage.
That's why the "likely voter" models used by so many pollsters (e.g. Rasmussen) are underestimating Obama's support.
The only "likely voter" model that would consider a first-time voter to be likely is Gallup's "expanded" model. Those who voted in the Democratic primaries/caucuses are also not considered "likely" unless they have voted in the general before.
Added to the under-weighting of young voters, cellphone-only voters, oversampling of rural areas by random selection of phone numbers, and a stubborn reliance on 2004 party identification, the pollsters are due for a nasty shock.
And we are not even considering McCain's dismal ground game in the equation.
Every day, I simply want to scream, "It's not 2004 anymore!".
By
Todd Dugdale , at 10:02 PM
I agree on every front although I'm not sure the levels of impact.
But be comforted. You will get your moment in two weeks from right now.
By
mikevotes, at 10:19 PM
I agree on every front although I'm not sure the levels of impact.
Frankly, I'm not sure of the "levels of impact" myself. But it seems obvious to me that any poll using a "likely voter" screen is a worst-case figure for Obama.
Some states have more first-time voters than others, fewer young people, fewer cellphones, and smaller rural populations, too. It isn't an "across-the-board" figure that one could add to any poll.
You will get your moment in two weeks from right now.
Not likely. There will at least a week of pundits comparing this election to 2004, and using 2004 as a lens to look at the results.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 10:52 PM
Yeah, I'm operating on the assumption that if the polls miss, they likely miss low with variation for states, etc.
By
mikevotes, at 6:56 AM
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