Conventional wisdom

The two top "straight news" campaign reporters, the NYTimes' Nagourney and the WaPo's Dan Balz both lay out the improbable path to McCain victory.

Nagourney is more state detailed, winning all of Florida, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, and Virginia (all of which he currently trails in, all without a single miss,) and then still havinmg to pick off Pa or some combination of Colo, Nv, NH, and NM. (That second group having already been written off by the campaign.)

Balz goes with the "closing the national polls" scenario.

It requires a combination of smart campaigning, traction for his arguments and what the McCain team hopes will be fears among the electorate at the prospect of a Democrat in the White House with expanded Democratic majorities in Congress.....

Advisers believe the contest's margin is in the five-to-seven-point range....

It's no wonder the campaign is disheartened. (see next.)