I'm always surprised when the public gets it.
From the CBS version of the CBS/NYTimes poll.
Or this blanket assessment from the NYTimes version.
Also: A new Quinnipiac has Obama up by 4. (Bounce is over.)
Just 17 percent of registered voters say McCain chose Palin because she is well qualified for the job of Vice President. Seventy-five percent say McCain made the choice to help win the election.
Or this blanket assessment from the NYTimes version.
The contest appeared to be roughly where it was before the two conventions and before the vice-presidential selections.
Also: A new Quinnipiac has Obama up by 4. (Bounce is over.)
posted by mikevotes at
6:10 AM
5 Comments:
Technically that 17% is really 23% because 6% of respondents said she was picked BOTH because she would help McCain win AND that she was qualified.
More interestingly is that 75% believe she was picked solely on the basis of political gamesmanship (ie helping McCain win). Wow. But the real question is, do people care? Do their views of Palin and McCain's reasons for choosing her affect their vote, or are they just cynical?
I was also surprised with the Palin and Biden favorability/unfavorability numbers. Palin's numbers look kind of Hillary-like (if you squint a little): 40/30 fav/unfav. That's a pretty even divide. Even with 30% undecided/uninformed, I think 40% might be her peak. I don't know how her favorability goes anywhere but down, given all the dark corners of her cupboard and the spotlight now shining into it. I think 40% are favorable of the fake marketing image created at the convention.
NY Times graphic.
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2008/09/18/us/20080918_POLLB_GRAPHIC.html
By
-epm, at 9:11 AM
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By
-epm, at 9:11 AM
I would say that Palin's still being defined, so the early numbers were based almost entirely on the McCain campaign's presentation of her, so, yeah, I don't see too much but down for her.
But, to me, the topline in these polls is definitely the topline of the story.
McCain picked Palin, got a bump through his convention, and now, as everyone settles down, that bump is almost gone.
The debates are the only scheduled game changers left.
By
mikevotes, at 9:15 AM
So we're back to the "McCain peaked too early." Probably. From a media perspective Palin has overshadowed McCain. The stage presence of the two is jarring. The crowds are jazzed with Palin, luke warm to McCain. McCain just looks old and tired and out of place (time?) when you see Palin and Obama... Even Biden -- who's no spring chicken -- makes McCain look tired and old.
The debates can be tricky things, because Americans don't really know what a real debate is. To us, debates are more like a political poetry slam where the one with the best reality TV performance wins... conversely, the one who comes across as intelligent or educated tends to "lose."
McCain can go all pissed-of-old-guy on Obama with impunity. But Obama has to fight that whole "angry black man" meme. This is where I think that long primary with it's endless debates may have helped prepare Obama for this.
(I don't want to argue the whole dragged out primary experience. I'm just saying Obama wasn't a strong debater -- in the American sense -- and I think he got better... against an angry, kitchen sink, opponent. You know?)
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-epm, at 9:32 AM
I still haven't gotten over the image of the two of them together yet, either.
And, "poetry slam". That's great.
"Get off my lawn" doesn't work well for McCain. He lacks the weird charm of Ross Perot.
(We've been back and forth on the long primary argument, but to add to your side, you could also argue that the long primary gave less political Americans a chance to get used to the idea of a black president.)
By
mikevotes, at 11:17 AM
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