It's closer.....
For months I have been insisting that the Presidential race was Obama +5 to +8. While I certainly don't buy that crazy Zogby poll, McCain +5 (sure to get tons of "dog bites man" coverage,) it does appear that we're starting to get some credible polling, like the LATimes/Bloomberg, Obama +2, showing things tightening up.
So, prepare yourself, because we're about to enter another round of the "Obama fret." Unfortunately, this round will get far more coverage as it will likely be used in framing the convention.
But, just as a hypothetical, let me ask, whose campaign would you rather be in right now?
It's been my contention that the Obama campaign made a conscious decision to trim down the enthusiasm through the summer, because, really, you couldn't expect that fervor from February to extend for seven solid months.
So, the convention is intended to be the relaunch, and we'll have to see how it goes. Enthusiasm is the fuel of the Obama campaign, and now we're going to see if they are able to turn it on and off at will. We'll know a lot more in a week.
(Later: I should probably also mention that the poll movement is Obama coming down rather than a "surge" by McCain who still sits below the 45% barrier in almost every poll. Bottom line: The negative effort to raise doubts about Obama is working, but it's still not helping McCain's numbers.)
So, prepare yourself, because we're about to enter another round of the "Obama fret." Unfortunately, this round will get far more coverage as it will likely be used in framing the convention.
But, just as a hypothetical, let me ask, whose campaign would you rather be in right now?
It's been my contention that the Obama campaign made a conscious decision to trim down the enthusiasm through the summer, because, really, you couldn't expect that fervor from February to extend for seven solid months.
So, the convention is intended to be the relaunch, and we'll have to see how it goes. Enthusiasm is the fuel of the Obama campaign, and now we're going to see if they are able to turn it on and off at will. We'll know a lot more in a week.
(Later: I should probably also mention that the poll movement is Obama coming down rather than a "surge" by McCain who still sits below the 45% barrier in almost every poll. Bottom line: The negative effort to raise doubts about Obama is working, but it's still not helping McCain's numbers.)
posted by mikevotes at
7:39 AM
6 Comments:
Looks like McCain got a pretty significant bounce from the Rick Warren forum (or is this data pre-forum?)
In any case, having watched the forum, you can see that McCain has an advantage with simpler people, and I don't mean stupid people.
A lot of people like direct answers, even if they amount to little less than a quip. You remember the question about evil? Obama went on for 5 minutes. McCain said, "Defeat it."
A lot of Americans like that.
By
Praguetwin, at 1:13 PM
I honestly think it's more residual off the negative ads and Georgia thing. Most of these polls were conducted coincidentally with the forum.
But, as you say, simplicity does sell. That's why "Drill here/Drill now" outpolls efficiency and alternative energy, regardless of the merits. That's why awakening the specter of the Soviet Union works better than a balanced discussion of realist foreign policy.
(Especially at this time of year when most people are only seeing the bits that punch through.)
By
mikevotes, at 1:22 PM
Fair point about the negative ads. I've seen some others say the same.
But yeah, Obama needs some sound bytes, and none too soon.
By
Praguetwin, at 2:18 PM
The soundbytes are a real problem.
One of the more interesting aspects of the primary was the whole "big state" thing.
There were some fundamental reasons separate from anything either campaign did, but it was my argument at the time that the Obama campaign was good at long form, but was beaten in soundbytes. So, in the larger media markets where a candidate coming to town doesn't generate blanket, long form coverage, the Clinton camp did better because it played the soundbyte game better.
For example, Texas has about 10 significant cities, and it was just impossible for the Obama camp to do candidate presence in all of them, so it became ads and soundbytes.
And that's sort of happening with McCain. Wherever Obama campaigns, he does better, but if it's just media, he's not nearly as good.
(No real telling yet how the ground game will shape things.)
Sorry, way too long an answer.
By
mikevotes, at 2:53 PM
No, it's cool. The thing is, in the general election, the long answer will work worse than it did in the primary.
I fear Obama is trying to play a game that is a bit too sophisticated.
By
Praguetwin, at 4:37 PM
That's what I'm trying to say.
In the primary, he was better when could command more media space, but when it comes down to the news story airing the 5 second clip, he wasn't nearly as good as Clinton, and is not yet as good as McCain.
Part of the problem is that he views them as actual speeches rather than soundbyte delivery mechanisms.
(The speeches are actually the coating.)
By
mikevotes, at 5:11 PM
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