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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Saturday, May 24, 2008

Forcing the fat kids to fight

I think it says alot that the US and Iran are both unhappy that Israel and Syria have entered into potential peace negotiations.

How dare they make peace......

posted by mikevotes at 6:16 AM

4 Comments:

  • It's encouraging to me that Turkey is stepping up and brokering these talks. Turkish-Israeli relations hit a new low when Israeli bombers violated Turkish air space in their strike on putative Syrian nuclear facilities. I think Turkey realises that asking Syria to break off relations with Iran is a deal-breaker, since they enjoy good relations with Iran themselves. Olmert is asking for too much and does not have the power to deliver on his end. Cutting off Hamas and Hezbollah is a realistic possibility, though.

    Bush has far more influence over Olmert than Iran has over Assad, but both Olmert's and Bush's days are essentially numbered. Any progress towards peace we may see will come despite Bush, not because of him, and I think there's a consensus on that in the ME - as you've alluded to previously.

    By Blogger Todd Dugdale , at 10:42 AM  

  • Good point about Turkey's shift.

    They are about the most credible Muslim country in the region. I'd be very curious how they got pulled in. Who's idea?

    And the ME countries are working around Bush.

    Think about that for a minute. Their desires for settlements are so great..... and yet the Bush admin would rather have nothing.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 11:26 AM  

  • One of the huge things analysts will look back on as they examine the Bush Presidency is the speed with which Turkey has backed away from the U.S. and how much distance they have been willing to put between themselves and the White House during Bush's tenure. And the Turkish government is under strong domestic pressure to increase that distance. Turks see better potential allies closer to home that make fewer demands.

    Any assault on Syria will likely involve Turkish airspace, and thus drag Turkey into an unwelcome conflict. They have a strong incentive to keep a lid on things. The Israeli attack on Syria, IMHO, brought Turkey into much closer contact with the Assad government.

    By Blogger Todd Dugdale , at 6:17 PM  

  • Probably should add into that the sudden reluctance of the EU to let Turkey in. That membership was one of the things the US was saying they could offer.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 9:08 PM  

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