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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Rasmussen shows a tightening Pennsylvania

After some of the tracking polling showing Obama gains, I've been very curious to see the next round of Pa polling. (Grain of salt, one poll, Rasmussen has shown it closer than most, etc, etc......)
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Pennsylvania shows Clinton leading Barack Obama by just five percentage points, 47% to 42%.

This is the first poll since all the "Clinton can't win"/"Clinton should quit." (This poll was conducted Mar 31.) Is that the effect?

It's all about momentum at this point, and Clinton is not in a place where she can survive even perceptions of weakness.

In the same poll a week ago, it was a 10-point spread.

(Tell me this won't be hyped. They'll spend their day fighting or denying this.)

Probably the next notable will be SUSA.

Later: SUSA is out and it shows Clinton +12 (more in line with most polls,) but it does show a similar change of Obama +7 from polling three weeks ago.
The movement in support came almost entirely from men, according to the survey results. Clinton had led by five points but now trails by seven....

So much for white men rejecting Obama. (Clinton leads among women 62-34, the main difference in the poll.)

2 Comments:

  • If the race is tightening, and indeed I'm sure it is, I wonder if Obama runs the risk of peaking too soon. I know that sounds cliché, but with three very long weeks to go...

    Will things get nasty again? Will the superdelegate vacuum suck Hillary out of the race? Will Obama do something really, really stupid?

    The Democratic Primary Process: America's Best Reality Show!

    By Blogger -epm, at 8:47 AM  

  • All good questions. The bottom line is whether this is a wobble in an even race or a recognition of an end for Clinton.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 11:29 AM  

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