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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Predictions?

My guess, and it's just a guess, is that Clinton wins today right at that media established +10 over/under.

In the details, she closes the popular vote by a fair bit, 200,000, but not enough to credibly challenge Obama's overall lead.

In the pledged delegates, she comes out +10 or +12, but again, not enough to substantially cut into the overall lead.

The media stories going forward will be mixed. Much more "Clinton can't win" and "Running out of time" tinged with a grudging respect for her wins in Oh and Pa, "Once again, she did what she needed to do." These will be offset by stories asking "Why can't Obama win?"and "damaged candidate" stories referring to Wright and "bitter" and all the rest.

In other words, my guess is that by tomorrow, we'll feel like we're pretty much where we are right now only with no "big states" left.

However, I would think that by Thursday, Friday, and into the weekend, the pressure on Clinton will build, more Obama superdelegates, more stories about Clinton's money situation, more stories on Clinton's impossible math, and polling showing an Obama NC sweep and an Indiana tie.

Just guesses. I've been substantially wrong before.

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