Maliki wants final conflict with Sadr before the US's November elections

Maliki takes it up several more notches.

Iraq's prime minister raised the stakes in his showdown with followers of Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, saying in an interview broadcast on Monday they would be barred from elections unless their militia disbands......

"Solving the problem comes in no other way than dissolving the Mehdi Army," Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki said in an interview with CNN. "They no longer have a right to participate in the political process or take part in the upcoming elections unless they end the Mehdi Army."

It was the first time Maliki has singled out Sadr's Mehdi Army militia by name and ordered it to disband. He said government troops would continue a crackdown -- first launched in the southern city of Basra late last month -- in Sadr City.

So many thoughts, I don't even know where to start. 1) This is not about "criminals," this is about Iraqi politics and Maliki wanting to break the Mahdi and solidify his coalition, ISCI and Dawa.

2) Maliki knows the likelihood of a significant shift in US presence coming in less than a year. He knows that if he wants to make this power play with US troops backing him up, he is nearing the end of his window to do so.

3) By shifting the attacks on the Mahdi from Basra to Sadr City, Maliki is dragging the US along behind him. In the current situation, the US has little choice but to follow al-Maliki into this conflict with Sadr. (In the current war politics, could the US let security in Baghdad degrade?)

4) Over the last few days, the US has been pushing into the outskirts of Sadr City in an effort to limit the rocket and mortar fire on the Green Zone (as well as maintaining checkpoints and blockades along the major entry points.)

5) Watch very closely to see if Maliki moderates his statements over the next few days. I have a hunch that the US will not be too happy that it is being dragged on Maliki's terms.

6) This is what is taking place instead of political reconciliation. The US is being dragged into choosing the Dawa/ISCI side of the civil war.

7) It was the Sadrist Shia who were the subject of Saddam Hussein's most vicious purges, and now the US is backing a new Iraqi government who is similarly killing them.

8) In Iraq, it is the ISCI/Badr who is perceived to be working with the Iranians, not Sadr. It is the ISCI/Badr who are considered the militia/death squads in government uniforms.

9) How long until Sadr, who has been framing himself as a nationalist, begins to cut a deal with the equally unhappy Sunnis?

Later: On the other hand, maybe the Americans will jump in with both feet. It does serve the war politics.

IRANIAN forces were involved in the recent battle for Basra, General David Petraeus, the US commander in Iraq, is expected to tell Congress this week.....

Petraeus intends to use the evidence of Iranian involvement to argue against any reductions in US forces.

(Juan Cole points out that there were very likely Iranians in Basra on pilgrimages to Karbala who got pulled in, but that's a step removed from the Iranian government.)