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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Monday, March 03, 2008

The popular vote

A number of people have asked about the popular vote total.

From RealClearPolitics: Obama 10,451,927, Clinton 9,540,370.

According to Ambinder, "With the votes of Michigan and Florida Democrats factored in, the gap narrows to 288,476....."

Also: Chuck Todd has an interesting piece on McCain and why he needs the Dem primary to continue. (I thought the second page gaming out the general election was interesting, too.)


  • Gotta keep those Democrats bleeding each other rather than bleeding him.

    By Anonymous Kvatch, at 6:53 PM  

  • so all undecided's from Mich go to OB? And Fla where no one campaigned (sort of)?? What a clusterf@#$k...Fla and Mich deciding to take their toys and go home probably sounded like a good idea when everyone thought bill's wife was a no-brainer...and we want to spread democracy!!!???

    here is a random MSM thought I found refreshing and wanted to share:

    Just two reasons why their attempt to argue that the media is biased against them is absurd. If Clinton had won ten primaries or caucuses in a row, do you think the MSM would have regarded Obama as still viable? And where are their fricking tax returns? Basic transparency on tax returns is a no-brainer for a presidential candidate. And yet she still hasn't done it and has absolutely no good reason for the delay, except to avoid scrutiny of her husband's post-presidential corporate whoring


    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:29 PM  

  • Kvatch, Yeah. The McCain campaign is in a really bad state right now, still existing on the bare bones group he reconstituted with, and limited in expansion by the uncertainty of the FEC stuff.

    It's a real window, but instead we may have Dems fighting each other for the next 6 weeks.


    Anon, I always thought the biased media thing was garbage. It's like working the refs. It enables them to cry unfair at everything.

    The Republicans have been doing it for years, and whether it's accurate or not, it innoculates your base.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 9:11 PM  

  • Someone made an interesting point in the comments to the Ambinder post... which was that the popular vote totals include crossover Republicans, who broke heavily for Obama. Not to mention independents. Supposedly Hillary prevails among actual Democrats, though no hard numbers were provided.

    Yeah, yeah, I know, those were the rules and everybody had to play by them. But it's one more thing about the primary system that sucks... we let REPUBLICANS have a voice in choosing our candidate?
    Hillary aside, that's just a terrible idea.

    By Anonymous tg, at 9:20 PM  

  • Right, you can't count them out, because that analysis presumes that everyone updates their voter registration everytime their positions change.

    I was a Republican when I first voted Democratic many years ago, and I voted in the Republican primary in 2006 because there was a race I wanted to affect and the Dem side for the major offices was largely uncontested.

    I know in Texas you can vote in either primary, but I'm not sure if it's "same day registration" or not. I may show up as a registered Republican right now.

    I'm not going down to the city offices or wait in line at the DMV to find out, you know?

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 9:57 PM  

  • polls this year are usually close on hrc but off quite a bit on OB...I've seen it explained that the pollsters are using old algarithms for the black turnout. Black turnout in Oh cities such as Cleveland, Youngstown, Akron, Columbus and Dayton will be record-breakingly high.

    The polls will be wrong again tomorrow in Tx and Oh. Look for OB to run about 7/8 points higher than polled in OH - a little less in TX since the state is so big...

    if this pans out, maybe Richardson, Gore, or Kennedy asks bill to give her the news to stop. altho I think she won't stop until the convention is over. Most sites are picking up on her comparing her experience to McCain's in a favorable way and virtually endorsing McCrazy or lobbying to be his VP choice. How can she endorse OB after this in a GE? Olberman and Meadow talked abt it tonight...This is running close to scorched earth policy and she risks ruining whatever positive legacy she ever had a chance for. It is now a clear show of arrogance over caring for the party...an easy ethical test is to ask hrc supporters how they would feel if OB was doing this after losing 11 straight, etc, etc...they would be losing their minds! But we being asked everyday for the last 3 weeks to accept her as a viable candidate with a realistic chance of winning...IMO 80% of OB votes are for CHANGE. We no longer want elections to be mudslinging/gotcha fights or a contest of who can get the best hard-on over the national anthem. for 3 months I have enjoyed the campaign and the excitement of actually seeing this country regain pride and intellegence. Tomorrow I vote for OB. If she pushes to PA I will vow to stop caring anymore. It is almost becoming self-inflicted torture to follow this madness anymore...

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:03 PM  

  • intelligence...mea culpa over the fat fingers...of all words to mis-spell! Ha! Peace.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:07 PM  

  • That's sorta my sense on the polling, but I don't really have anything to back that up so I'm not really saying it, although I would go beyond just black and include youth and independents who are weakly weighted in some of the polling.

    But, all this negative in the last two days may diminish some of Obama's turnout.

    I've got a post already written on one of the possible permutation for Mar. 5. I'll put it up tnight/tomorrow.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 10:08 PM  

  • All I know is, there is something very wrong with the system when Rush Limbaugh has a say in a Democratic primary.

    By Anonymous tg, at 12:39 AM  

  • Now that I'll agree with, although I doubt there'll be that much crossover from Rush. He's trying to make people go against everything he's told them for over a decade.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 7:14 AM  

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