Stray thoughts on McCain
1) If McCain has a preference on who he'd like to run against, how much will he try to intervene? Dump oppo research dirt on one or the other? (Echoes my question from last Friday.)
2) McCain tends to do well among Republicans who disapprove of George Bush. Is that a byproduct of support from "moderates" or is that people in the GOP really see McCain as that significantly different from Bush?
3) Does McCain damage his reach to non-GOP independents if he names Mullah Huckabee as his VP?
2) McCain tends to do well among Republicans who disapprove of George Bush. Is that a byproduct of support from "moderates" or is that people in the GOP really see McCain as that significantly different from Bush?
3) Does McCain damage his reach to non-GOP independents if he names Mullah Huckabee as his VP?
posted by mikevotes at
9:21 PM
8 Comments:
Any pull McCain has with actual moderates is lost if he asks Huckabee to join the ticket. If I was a GOP advisor I'd tell McCain to just keep the powder dry and watch the Dems hit each other. Use the same talking points in the Fall. Not much new material on the Clinton's will be necessary. Altho Hillary will be McCain just as strongly as Obama will. Starting in Aug all the dems have to do is keep running the pic of McCain hugging W...
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Anonymous, at 9:52 PM
I think you're right. By the time we get to convention, his right flank will have sung in and he won't need Huckabee.
If he does need that right wing figure, he needs to find someone approved by the right, but not so outspoken.
And he is going to be strangled with the Bush record.
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mikevotes, at 11:11 PM
I think dyed-in-the-wool cons will sit this cycle out if McCain and 'insert name here' are the ticket. It's McCain that is McCain's worst enemy. The GOP treats Huckabee like he had wasn't even in their party. So they probably wouldn't be excited with a McHuck ticket. McLieberman maybe, but who knows.
Anyhoo I've been reading that Dems turned out on Super Tuesday 2-1 to vote so I think they're sending a clear mandate and McCain is just getting thrown under the bus like Dole did in '96.
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matt, at 8:20 AM
Really. It's my hunch that the GOP will turn out to vote for him, but the volunteers and passion will be low.
We just have to wait and see.
And, the big story this cycle has been the enthusiasm gap between Dems and Repubs, although with the differing races, competitive Obama/Clinton, McCain sewing it up, there is some of that gap that's situational.
But, alot of it is the differing levels of passion.
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mikevotes, at 8:36 AM
Conversely, on point 1, with McCain now stuck in the open as the last man standing, the DNC (or some such) could be doing the dirt dumping.
I'm only 75% sure the hard-right conservatives (the hate radio types) will fall into line. Unlike the Dems, I think the GOP is made up of a more strident and unforgiving bunch. And it's not all talk. These are real cut their nose to spite their face types.
If the Christianists are necessary for the GOP to take a national election, I'm not sure they come out for McCain. Certainly not without their clerics instructing them to do so.
Huckabee is a net loser on the GOP ticket. Too much YouTube out there now with him spouting his "christian" talibanic desires.
But has the GOP poisioned its own well with too many amoral, nasty players? It's getting there.
I think he's got to go south. He's got to go conservative. Not Christianist conservative, but one who can do the God-talk thing with credibility. Like Bill Clinton does on the Dem side. I'm thinking a woman. Kay Baily Hutchinson? But I'm really just throwing that name out because it's the only popular Republican -- non-whacko (can you say Kathleen Harris) -- southern woman I can think of.
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-epm, at 8:38 AM
EPM, maybe, but I think the DNC is pretty tied up trying to avoid a convention and trying to figure out what to do with Florida and Michigan.
Plus, dirt usually works better tighter to voting day. On the other hand, hitting him now would feed the dissatisfaction, and you gotta figure that in a couple weeks, the news orgs will start doing the faults with the candidate pieces.
I don't know if you saw, Dobson made an endorsement of Huckabee.
And, I agree with your last point, but how weird is it for a newly minted presidential candidate to have to tack away from the center?
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mikevotes, at 8:42 AM
"I think the DNC is pretty tied up ..."
This is something you can farm out the a team of dedicated interns led by a savvy veteran operative. I don't see the other stuff on the DNC plate as having any affect on doing this.
My broader point was't the DNC, however, but that McCain now has a target on his chest. Any Democratic/liberal/progressive group now has a specific, individual, subject for oppo research.
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-epm, at 9:00 AM
Fair.
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mikevotes, at 11:14 AM
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