Predictions and the Clinton pre-mortem.
Is anyone predicting anything besides Obama/McCain? (I'll add Huckabee in a higher than expected third and Giuliani finishing low enough to be criticized.)
Okay, now to Clinton. All by himself, Matt Drudge is damaging Clinton. This morning, he ran one of those dubious, unattributed "flash" items saying the Clinton camp was "engulfed" in talk of withdrawing from the campaign. Suddenly, her campaign has to fight media questions on this on the day before the primary.
On another front, the groundwork appears to be laid to blame top Clinton campaign adviser Mark Penn for the losses. (Bob Shrum, Huff Po) A bit in a NYTimes article seems to say that Bill Clinton is seeking advice from James Carville. Josh Marshall quotes a supposed "insider" who trashes Penn, but says that Clinton and Penn are extremely close.
Then there's this really weird moment where Clinton teared up today while answering a question. (video) Call me cynical, but tearing up over her passion for "change" seems a little convenient, you know? (It's getting big coverage, though.)
(Rasmussen shows Clinton's national lead falling, too.)
I don't think it's over after tomorrow, or even if Obama wins SC. I think the final firewall will be Florida coupled with the national polls looking into Feb 5. Right now, the Clinton campaign needs time and space (and probably firing Penn to allow a scapegoat.)
In the end, the real problem I see is that the media seems overly giddy to write her obituary. Somehow the Clinton campaign will have to generate some "got her groove back" coverage.
Later: Josh Marshall also reports some secondary "stay in/get out" discussion from people not in the core of her campaign.
Also: Like I said, I wouldn't count her out yet.
But trying to rehumanize Obama in 3 weeks will be tough.
Okay, now to Clinton. All by himself, Matt Drudge is damaging Clinton. This morning, he ran one of those dubious, unattributed "flash" items saying the Clinton camp was "engulfed" in talk of withdrawing from the campaign. Suddenly, her campaign has to fight media questions on this on the day before the primary.
On another front, the groundwork appears to be laid to blame top Clinton campaign adviser Mark Penn for the losses. (Bob Shrum, Huff Po) A bit in a NYTimes article seems to say that Bill Clinton is seeking advice from James Carville. Josh Marshall quotes a supposed "insider" who trashes Penn, but says that Clinton and Penn are extremely close.
Then there's this really weird moment where Clinton teared up today while answering a question. (video) Call me cynical, but tearing up over her passion for "change" seems a little convenient, you know? (It's getting big coverage, though.)
(Rasmussen shows Clinton's national lead falling, too.)
I don't think it's over after tomorrow, or even if Obama wins SC. I think the final firewall will be Florida coupled with the national polls looking into Feb 5. Right now, the Clinton campaign needs time and space (and probably firing Penn to allow a scapegoat.)
In the end, the real problem I see is that the media seems overly giddy to write her obituary. Somehow the Clinton campaign will have to generate some "got her groove back" coverage.
Later: Josh Marshall also reports some secondary "stay in/get out" discussion from people not in the core of her campaign.
Also: Like I said, I wouldn't count her out yet.
The emerging strategy—assuming the results are as bad as Clinton aides now fear—will start with a concerted plea to voters, donors, and the news media to hold off writing campaign obituaries until after the Feb. 5 primaries.
This will be followed, according to current planning within the Clinton circle, by a mix of negative advertising portraying Obama as a conventional, calculating politician, and positive advertising emphasizing her strength and experience.
But trying to rehumanize Obama in 3 weeks will be tough.
posted by mikevotes at
1:24 PM
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