Edwards quitting Presidential race
There can be no question that John Edwards quitting the Democratic race will have a big impact on the Clinton/Obama balance right before the Feb 5 primaries, but I have no idea what that effect will be.
Are the Edwards supporters mainline Democrats likely to break for Clinton or are they anti-Clinton, anti-establishment likely to break for Obama?
(At first thought, I would think throwing the cards in the air probably benefits Obama as he is running close behind in alot of the polling.
And the debate will be a two person event tomorrow.)
Later: I guess Clinton doesn't get to dominate the news cycle with Florida.
Are the Edwards supporters mainline Democrats likely to break for Clinton or are they anti-Clinton, anti-establishment likely to break for Obama?
(At first thought, I would think throwing the cards in the air probably benefits Obama as he is running close behind in alot of the polling.
And the debate will be a two person event tomorrow.)
Later: I guess Clinton doesn't get to dominate the news cycle with Florida.
posted by mikevotes at
8:30 AM
5 Comments:
I really don't have a sense on this. I could easily make an argument either way as to where the Edwards supporters will go. Edwards is very anti-establishment and anti-corporate, which would play more toward the Obama camp.
On the other hand, Edwards is also fiercely partisan, which would play toward the Clinton camp.
One the third had, Edwards is a fervent populist... how this splits is anyone's guess. You have the populists who are looking for a parental leader to fight for them (Clinton) and you have populists who want an active role in the process and are looking for a senior partner (Obama).
As an Obama supporter (initially Edwards), I'd pee my pants and spit my coffee if Richardson and Edwards both endorsed Obama before 5 Feb. This Thursday, 10:00 EST, would be nice... take us right to the end of the weekly news cycle. ;)
By
-epm, at 8:40 AM
That's exactly where I am.
Probably add to your thinking that his support is older so skews Clinton.
But, we don't know how much Edwards support was underlying anti-Clinton.
That's the question.
(Again, I don't think either will endorse Obama in the next week.)
At least now we'll get a clean read on Feb 5.
By
mikevotes, at 8:47 AM
I'm an anyone but Hillary internecene partisan so I'm going Obama.
By
matt, at 9:06 AM
Even without and Edwards endorsement, the mere fact that he's withdrawing from the race has pulled the wind out of the sails of whatever news there is with Hillary's perverse "victory rally" and "win" in FL. That's got to help Obama... or at least not hurt him.
By
-epm, at 9:09 AM
Matt, I hear a whole lot of that. That undercurrent is the real question in all this.
....
EPM, I just added that to the post.
By
mikevotes, at 10:41 AM
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