The leftovers
One little note to add to the primary coverage. There seems to be very little discussion of what I call "the leftovers."
"The leftovers" are voters who find themselves with their candidate out of the race by the time the primaries reach their state.
For example, there are currently five candidates showing up in the GOP polling for Florida, but by the time Florida comes around several of the candidates will not be around in any appreciable sense.
What happens to these numbers if, for example, McCain and Thompson are judged to be dead in the water by Florida's primary?
Since the Giuliani campaign strategy assumes a start in Florida after losing the first three states, the reallocation of those "leftovers" will be key. More than likely, a good part of that 26-36% of the vote will try and find somewhere else to go.
I would love to see some second choice polling on McCain, Thompson, and Huckabee. Which ones break where?
(On the Dem side, I'm guessing it's alot more clear with Obama and Edwards sharing voters if either one of them pulls out.)
"The leftovers" are voters who find themselves with their candidate out of the race by the time the primaries reach their state.
For example, there are currently five candidates showing up in the GOP polling for Florida, but by the time Florida comes around several of the candidates will not be around in any appreciable sense.
What happens to these numbers if, for example, McCain and Thompson are judged to be dead in the water by Florida's primary?
A new Strategic Vision poll in Florida that shows Rudy Giuliani leading with 31%, followed by a four way statistical tie for second place with Fred Thompson at 13%, Sen. John McCain at 13%, Mitt Romney at 12% and Mike Huckabee at 10%.
Since the Giuliani campaign strategy assumes a start in Florida after losing the first three states, the reallocation of those "leftovers" will be key. More than likely, a good part of that 26-36% of the vote will try and find somewhere else to go.
I would love to see some second choice polling on McCain, Thompson, and Huckabee. Which ones break where?
(On the Dem side, I'm guessing it's alot more clear with Obama and Edwards sharing voters if either one of them pulls out.)
posted by mikevotes at
6:57 PM
2 Comments:
If Giuliani loses the first three states, is there a chance that HIS supporters become leftovers in FL? I'm expecting a big surge for Romney coming out of Iowa and NH. How much that's dampened by the time we get to the southern tier I don't know. Will Romeny's expected victories in the early states result in a stampede of resigned inevitability support among GOP voters, as Kerry's did with the Dems in 04?
By
-epm, at 9:14 AM
Yeah, there is.
Several of those 5 will take a hit, moving it to what is primarily a binary race.
At the very most, I would think it'll be three going into Florida, but I'll wager it'll likely be two.
As to who falls off, I don't know,there's alot of ground between now and then, and I can make cases, some more plausible than others, of any of these 5 being either in or out.
If I'm guessing, sitting ere now, I would think it'll be Romney coming out with the momentum, but that's a long way away, and I don't have the bigotries of alot of the Republican voters.
By
mikevotes, at 1:08 PM
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