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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Sunday, November 18, 2007

Didn't we learn anything from arming the Taleban in the 80's?

The US is floating a plan on the front page of the NYTimes to arm Pakistani tribesmen and the Frontier Corps to fight Al Qaeda, similar to the current efforts in Anbar.

Because after all, there's never been any blowback from anything like this before.....

Related: Kagan and O'Hanlon in the NYTimes: "We need to think — now — about our feasible military options in Pakistan, should it really come to that."

posted by mikevotes at 9:52 PM

9 Comments:

  • This is a joke... right? Sorta like arming once anti-American tribal militias in Iraq? (No, wait...)

    You think Afghanistan was a mess. Wait a decade from now and see the absolute cock-up we've made of the Middle East come to bear not only fruit, but a whole damn vineyard.

    By Blogger -epm, at 7:28 AM  

  • And, they're talking about making this move based on what, six months in Anbar, a place where tribal leaders have a strong sectarian history?

    The time frame is so off. If there is any blowback from the "Anbar model," it's likely to take years to manifest.

    Again, this is just a plan being proposed, but its proponents felt their position was strong enough to trial balloon on the front page of the NYTimes.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 7:57 AM  

  • I think the key element in the proposal is getting American trainers in there. Prelude to building another base most likely.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:17 AM  

  • Yeah, there's a little subsection talking about the US being allowed special operations inside Pakistan, but the official numbers in the article are pretty small, something like 50-60 "advisors."

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 8:20 AM  

  • Just as in Anbar, this approach creates serious problems for the government in Pakistan.

    You arm selected groups because the government can't operate in the area due to opposition and mistrust of the government. If the selected groups prevail, you leave these powerful groups in a better position to keep out the government.

    I'm also wondering if a shortage of arms is the problem, anyway.

    I also haven't seen any evidence that there is big anti-Taliban mood in the federal tribal areas. This is the prerequisite for an "Anbar solution" to work. It seems more like a one-size-fits-all tactic.

    By Blogger Todd Dugdale , at 9:02 AM  

  • No shortage of arms there todd. And I think you're right about the Taliban being popular. Maybe somebody is hoping to turn the tribes against each other.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:07 AM  

  • I also worry that you're creating a situation where the military, facing a loss of control, decides that maybe the Taleban shouldn't lose. You know?

    And, really, is affiliating with the US going to help anyone in Pakistan?

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 12:48 PM  

  • Affiliating with the U.S. can get you guns and money, but the militants in Pakistan have been very effective in portraying Musharraf as controlled to foreigners. Since this seems to be the most frequent criticism of Musharraf in the Swat Valley, I don't see a real chance of people there lining up to be "controlled by foreigners". And they already have weapons. We're not going to hand anything high-tech over to these guys, or we'd be crazy if we did.

    Mike, that's a shrewd angle. Musharraf couldn't pull it off at this point, but the military could pull off a coup and the new guy could easily align with the Taliban just to hold on. The only domestic opposition would be the pro-democracy movement, and they're already in jail. It sounds like it would fit in with the way everything else has been going for Bush.

    For a couple of years now, our military has been saying that if a new threat materialises, we may not have enough troops available to handle it. Maybe *this* is that new threat materialising.

    By Blogger Todd Dugdale , at 6:22 PM  

  • Right. It's only one issue in this, but it's a pretty big one.

    If you were the Pakistani government, would you want an independent foreign supplied and influenced militia?

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 6:30 PM  

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