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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Friday, October 26, 2007

Heads up, Iraq

I've maintained that a fair part of the reduction of violence against civilians in Iraq is due to the Mahdi stand down. Well, heads up.
A representative of radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, meanwhile, warned during his Friday sermon that a freeze on Shiite militia activities could be lifted if U.S. and Iraqi forces continue detaining members of the movement.

Sheik Assad al-Nasseri also complained that an agreement to end violence between followers of al-Sadr and rival Shiite politician Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim had failed to yield tangible results.

"The reconciliation between the Sadrist movement and other sides did not have any noticeable effect except in some press statements," al-Nasseri said during Friday prayers in the holy city of Kufa.

On Wednesday, al-Sadr renewed his appeal to his followers to uphold the six-month cease-fire announced in August and threatened to expel those who do not.


Interesting that this comes two days after Sadr reaffirmed the ceasefire. Is this cleric complaining publicly or is he placating the complainers within the organization?

The recent US airstrikes that have killed civilians have been very unpopular.

posted by mikevotes at 7:36 AM

2 Comments:

  • The purpose of the "stand down" was for the Sadrists to maintain a low profile while the other (rival) militias weaken themselves and bear the brunt of the U.S. military.

    However, the American commanders have used this as an opportunity to go after the Mahdi Army, so the Sadrists gain nothing from this strategy. Instead, al-Sadr gets to watch his organisation's leadership imprisoned, along with the subsequent mistreatment and torture common in Iraqi prisons. We are, in effect, leaving the Sadrists no other option but to fight.

    Meanwhile, the lull in violence is not doing anything to improve the political situation or advance the reconstruction. We will squander this break by using it to settle scores.

    By Blogger Todd Dugdale , at 11:38 AM  

  • I agree the Sadrists were standing down, but only to wait the US out. They're in a very strong position, and as long as they maintain their support, there's no reason for them to fight the US today when they could be fighting for Iraq tomorrow.

    And, I hadn't made the connection of the US targeting Sadr's people.

    In a previous, very brief ceasefire, the US worked to clean up Sadr's ranks, with Sadr almost grateful for the US bringing certain elements in line.

    Last, yeah, we're still getting nowhere near a "solution." The lowering of violence is mainly the factions coming to some accomodation so that they do not have to fight the US anymore.

    Not one underlying issue has been resolved. It's all just waiting.

    (I guess that would be because of the surge "timetable," huh?)

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 1:53 PM  

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