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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Monday, July 23, 2007

Is Iraq the Afghanistan in the 80's, only with the US playing the Soviets?

I don't know if there's any real level of involvement (this may be a tinfoil hat post,) but alot of those weapons coming across the Iranian border are manufactured in China, and if we're moving from small arms and explosives up to missiles, that might deserve a little notice.
The US military on Sunday said its troops had found Chinese-made missiles which they believe were smuggled into Iraq by groups in Iran in order to arm groups fighting US-led forces.

There's really not too much out there on the Chinese origin of some of these weapons flows. It's entirely plausible that that the Chinese government is not at all involved, but I'm finding an echo of Afghanistan in the 80's in Iraq.

A foreign occupier (Russia/US) frustrated by the interference of neighbor/proxy (Pakistan/Iran) which foments resistance movements based on religious fervor (Taleban/Mahdi/Badr.)

(Maybe it's the sudden, largely unprovoked, interest in banning, inspecting, etc. of Chinese products that got my antennae twitching. It may simply be that my tinfoil hat's too tight again.)


  • I'm sure the Chinese Government is not unhappy to see the US bogged down in Afghanistan and Iraq. Proving it is another matter.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:32 AM  

  • Exactly. And there are tons of levels at which something like this can be carried out, from simply ignoring the sudden Iranian surge in weapons spending to actually being involved.

    Beyond the bloody nose which would make US adventurism and interference in Asia less likely, the Chinese would also rather see the Iranian influenced Shia controlling the oilfields rather than a neutral or Sunni government.

    I have nothing solid to hang this on, but at a low level of involvement, to me, this would make sense. Not enough to provoke open conflict with the US, but it is an easy leverage point.

    (And, this is how empires do it. Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan.....)

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 10:43 AM  

  • It's looking more and more like an undeclared WW3.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:10 AM  

  • The hope is that it all works out as a cold war rather than a hot war.

    Again, if this is going on, this is one of the ways the great powers joust in the era of nuclear weapons.

    It's a very tricky thing for one great power to overtake another. However, the Chinese seem to be working on the long view,and the extensive economic ties will hopefully stop any rapid dislocations.

    The danger is always greater from the declining power who will lash out and attempt to use existant military advantage to prolong dominance, like the proposals outlined in the Project for a New American Century as example.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 1:31 PM  

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