Bush shifting emphasis on Iraq, not strategy.

Bush will use a speech in Cleveland today in an attempt to defuse the defections on Iraq. Despite a possible shift in wording or emphasis, this speech represents a political shift, not a real shift in strategy. (And don't miss the plea to ignore the evidence right before your eyes.)

Bush plans to lay out what an aide called "his vision for the post-surge" starting in Cleveland today to assure the nation that he, too, wants to begin bringing troops home eventually.....

To do that, Bush intends to argue that Congress and the public should look past this week's scheduled status report on Iraq and wait for the fuller assessment due in September. A drawdown, administration officials said, must be the result of the troop increase, not in place of it. "The drawdown is an effect," the official said. "It's not a cause."

The target of this speech is not the persuasion of Capitol Hill, but the American people. This speech is an effort to generate political cover for the next wave of Republicans who are on the fence.

But this political problem is not about the facts. This is about the administration's credibility, and no speech can reclaim that.

Reading this excerpt, you can almost hearing the Peter Baker asking his source that question, "Really? You really expect people to buy this?"

But Bush aides said they are acutely aware that every forecast they have made for Iraq over the past four years has proved wildly optimistic.

Later: Really? You really expect people to believe this?

A report citing a lack of progress by the Baghdad government is only "a look at the starting line" of the U.S. troop surge and shouldn't be used by critics to demand withdrawal, President Bush's spokesman said Tuesday.

.