Partition is a horrible idea
The LATimes begins this article claiming that the Bush administration is seeking a "compromise deal" on Iraq trying "to find a plan that could satisfy opponents without sacrificing his top goals."
If such a position existed, we'd be there by now.
Then, this article goes on to discuss at length the idea of partition of Iraq (often couched as "federalism") a position laid out most avidly by Joe Biden.
Partition is a horrible idea. Almost every worst case long term scenario comes to pass in partition. The Iranians end up with control of the south, sitting within attacking range of the Saudi oilfields. With the Sunnis in unchallenged control of their land, they can house Al Qaeda without outside challenge, using them to strike against the Shia and Kurd controlled government. The Kurds end up with their homeland destabilizing Turkey and northern Iran.
Oh, and then there's that little matter of ethnic cleansing as millions are forced from their homes to their new borders.
To top it all off, the underlying political conflict will still lay inadequately resolved. Will the Sunnis be happy being cast into the desert without political power, oil revenue, or any natural resources?
Partition solves no problems except to give people like Biden a simplistic, politically saleable answer.
Do you want to tell me how partition works in the neighborhoods of Baghdad or Kirkuk? I'm sure those arbitrary lines will become inviolate.
If such a position existed, we'd be there by now.
Then, this article goes on to discuss at length the idea of partition of Iraq (often couched as "federalism") a position laid out most avidly by Joe Biden.
Partition is a horrible idea. Almost every worst case long term scenario comes to pass in partition. The Iranians end up with control of the south, sitting within attacking range of the Saudi oilfields. With the Sunnis in unchallenged control of their land, they can house Al Qaeda without outside challenge, using them to strike against the Shia and Kurd controlled government. The Kurds end up with their homeland destabilizing Turkey and northern Iran.
Oh, and then there's that little matter of ethnic cleansing as millions are forced from their homes to their new borders.
To top it all off, the underlying political conflict will still lay inadequately resolved. Will the Sunnis be happy being cast into the desert without political power, oil revenue, or any natural resources?
Partition solves no problems except to give people like Biden a simplistic, politically saleable answer.
Do you want to tell me how partition works in the neighborhoods of Baghdad or Kirkuk? I'm sure those arbitrary lines will become inviolate.
posted by mikevotes at
8:54 AM
2 Comments:
In fairness to Biden, I think he is better informed and more sincere than most senators--certainly than most presidential candidates. Also I believe his idea of "soft partition" is designed to give the Sunnis a fair share of oil revenue.
And in fairness to the idea of partition, while it would clearly be messy, it's the only way to give each of Iraq's communities control over their own destiny. And what are the alternatives? I see them as these:
a) Shia dominance (sooner or later, genocide against Sunnis)
b) Sunni dominance (genocide against Shias)
c) Perpetual civil war
d) Reconciliation. (Good luck with that.)
Iraq was never really a country. With all that's happened, I don't see how it can now become one.
By
Anonymous, at 6:23 PM
The reality is that Iraq will partition, it is violently portioning now. What choice do we have but to follow a realistic path now, while we still have influence and troops in country to make it a softer landing?
If we follow the current course for another year, we will be pulling out, leaving a dreaded and violent partition in our wake. It is a foregone conclusion.
By
Anonymous, at 2:00 AM
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