Iraq strategy geared to U.S. pullout
A hugely interesting LATimes article reporting that the current US military strategy is being driven by the belief that a US pullback is inevitable.
Well worth a read, although I would question the underlying presumption. It's my belief that if the US forces were pulled off the field, the amalgam of Iraqi security forces, militias, and death squads would rapidly and thoroughly sweep through alot of the "mixed" Sunni/Shia areas.
It would be bloody as hell, but it's not like the Shia are helpless. The Iraqi forces may be helpless, but Sadr alone can muster more men under arms than the Sunnis.
Al Qaeda/Salafi extremists might find some protection out west in Anbar, but in the close in and mixed areas, Diyala, Mosul, Baghdad, the Shia death squads would rule.
This would be civil war, ethnic cleansing, and the bloodletting would be horrible(the Saudis and Egyptians might be drawn in,) but to portray Al Qaeda as ruling Iraq after a US pullout is a lie.
They are the mortal enemies of the Shia. Anywhere Al Qaeda popped up, the death squads would sweep in.
U.S. commanders plan a summer of stepped-up offensives against Al Qaeda in Iraq as they tailor strategy to their expectation that Congress soon will impose a timeline for drawing down U.S. forces here.
Well worth a read, although I would question the underlying presumption. It's my belief that if the US forces were pulled off the field, the amalgam of Iraqi security forces, militias, and death squads would rapidly and thoroughly sweep through alot of the "mixed" Sunni/Shia areas.
It would be bloody as hell, but it's not like the Shia are helpless. The Iraqi forces may be helpless, but Sadr alone can muster more men under arms than the Sunnis.
Al Qaeda/Salafi extremists might find some protection out west in Anbar, but in the close in and mixed areas, Diyala, Mosul, Baghdad, the Shia death squads would rule.
This would be civil war, ethnic cleansing, and the bloodletting would be horrible(the Saudis and Egyptians might be drawn in,) but to portray Al Qaeda as ruling Iraq after a US pullout is a lie.
They are the mortal enemies of the Shia. Anywhere Al Qaeda popped up, the death squads would sweep in.
posted by mikevotes at
9:34 PM
1 Comments:
Seems to me this is a key question that doesn't get enough attention--What DOES happen if the U.S. pulls back?
Without having any military expertise, I suspect the Sunnis might give a fairly good account of themselves. After all, they're not doing so badly even now. And the Iraqi army is not the Marines; the Mahdi army is not the U.S. army. In particular, if the Shia were deprived of American air and logistical support, they might be in some trouble.
But agreed, al Qaeda proper is not likely to gain control of much. The Shia certainly won't tolerate them, and in the end, neither will the Iraqi Sunnis. It's a bogus threat that the Bushies use to justify their incoherent policy.
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