How many more have to die?
I think the presentation in this AP piece is deceptive. Yes, more US soldiers died in March that Iraqi Army, but the Iraqi army is only one piece of the pie.
However, reading that 81 US soldiers died in March, with the consistent promises from "commanders in the field" that this new strategy will yield higher casualty rates and not be assessable for six months to a year, I think it's time to ask again, how many more must die?
Thumbnailing off current casualty rates, which is a horrible practice when talking about human lives, six months means roughly 500 more US soldiers dead, 3,300 more wounded. A year would mean 1,000 more US soldiers killed 7,000 wounded.
All of this for a strategy referred to as "a chance of success."
I would really like to ask the president his feeling for the odds of this gamble. Is it his sense that this "chance of success," now pared down to a definition of victory that says that a future Iraq will never be free of car bombs, is worth 500 or 1,000 lives?
Forced to make a one time choice, is President Bush willing to gamble those lives on what he sees as the current odds?
More broadly, is there any point or any odds where he is not willing to continue, or, like a compulsive gambler, will he continually throw more lives on the betting table?
This is what the Dems are trying to accomplish in their legislation. They are trying to force an assessment, a stop point. They are trying to get him to look up from the game and realize the losses, to look at the real costs of what he's doing.
(Not that I'm implying the President has an addictive personality.)
However, reading that 81 US soldiers died in March, with the consistent promises from "commanders in the field" that this new strategy will yield higher casualty rates and not be assessable for six months to a year, I think it's time to ask again, how many more must die?
Thumbnailing off current casualty rates, which is a horrible practice when talking about human lives, six months means roughly 500 more US soldiers dead, 3,300 more wounded. A year would mean 1,000 more US soldiers killed 7,000 wounded.
All of this for a strategy referred to as "a chance of success."
I would really like to ask the president his feeling for the odds of this gamble. Is it his sense that this "chance of success," now pared down to a definition of victory that says that a future Iraq will never be free of car bombs, is worth 500 or 1,000 lives?
Forced to make a one time choice, is President Bush willing to gamble those lives on what he sees as the current odds?
More broadly, is there any point or any odds where he is not willing to continue, or, like a compulsive gambler, will he continually throw more lives on the betting table?
This is what the Dems are trying to accomplish in their legislation. They are trying to force an assessment, a stop point. They are trying to get him to look up from the game and realize the losses, to look at the real costs of what he's doing.
(Not that I'm implying the President has an addictive personality.)
6 Comments:
I think the Dems could be asked the same question in your title as well as the administration.
The Dem leadership should be hammering home the math you cite in your post as a reason to bring the troops home as fast as humanly possible, not a year or 17 months from now. But "Dem" and "leadership" has been an unmatched set for far too long now.
Sorry for the cynicism on this lovely Sunday morning...
By Anonymous, at 9:41 AM
And what exactly is "success"? As far as I can tell, the definition of "success" has not been spelled out by the administration yet. What combination of factors has to exist, in their minds, before this tail-chasing exercise can conclude?
It's an occupation, people! It's over when we decide it's over.
By Anonymous, at 12:36 PM
Abi, I agree. They are balancing the moral choices against the political choices. In a cold analysis, it's in their interest to be on record against this war but not to actually stop it.
(I gotta say, I actually think the year timeline is a pretty reasonable proposal. You need to take a "year of transition" because there are things you want to do before you leave that aren't even being started right now. I really do not believe you can walk out tomorrow, but you can decide to begin transitioning tomorrow, you know?)
....
Local, That's a big key point. That's why that comment by Bush a month ago (?) was such a big deal that success will not be an Iraq without car bombings .
I don't see an achievable definition of success out there.
Which means that I also don't see a definable mission.
So, I can't answer you.
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