Assuming the primaries were held today....

As you look at all the polling on the '08 candidates and on specific issues like Iraq, keep this in mind: With the current political situation, independents will likely be voting exclusively in the Democratic primaries.

So, when you talk about a McCain and his untenable prowar position, remember that in a Republican primary without independents, you get Iraq polling like this,

Among Republicans, 76 percent said it was the right thing to do and 20 percent said the U.S. should have stayed out.....

Among just Republicans, 62 percent thought the war was going very or somewhat well, compared to 36 percent who said somewhat or very badly.....

Among Republicans, 72 percent said success is very or somewhat likely,

Also, you have to figure the pro war folks are about the deepest of the koolaid drinkers, so they will probably overrepresent from this polling in the primaries.

Now, it's a long way between here and there, and I would expect further erosion, but if you look at Republican primaries without any independents, pro Iraq war is still a very winning Republican position. (Of course that would leave a Dole-like candidate for the general election.)

I don't have as good a sense of what this would mean on the Democratic side. Does it make the overall primary base more centrist, or, because these independents have come over for the war, does it make the antiwar position ascendent?

(I've said it before, I'm really beginning to think that this is the new McCain primary strategy.)