.comment-link {margin-left:.6em;}

Born at the Crest of the Empire

Monday, March 12, 2007

Pullout plans for Iraq or an internal Pentagon battle?

About a week ago there was a big and widely discussed WaPo article stating that there was no "Plan B" if "the surge" failed.

Well, the LATimes has a piece today discussing one of the "Plan B's."
American military planners have begun plotting a fallback strategy for Iraq that includes a gradual withdrawal of forces and a renewed emphasis on training Iraqi fighters in case the current troop buildup fails or is derailed by Congress.

Such a strategy, based in part on the U.S. experience in El Salvador in the 1980s, is still in the early planning stages and would be adjusted to fit the outcome of the current surge in troop levels, according to military officials and Pentagon consultants who spoke on condition of anonymity when discussing future plans.

From the article it seems apparent that this leak has been given by a faction in the Pentagon which disapproves of "the surge" and "back(s) the position of Gen. John P. Abizaid....who favored handing responsibility more quickly to Iraqis."

It would seem to me that this is a minority leaking their ideas seeking political help for their side of the argument, but if that's their purpose, the timing's curious. It seems timed to the US political debate rather than a dramatic setback in the current policy.

And, the counter argument is interesting,
Stephen Biddle of the Council on Foreign Relations argued that the El Salvador model would not work in Iraq. El Salvador was a fight against a Marxist insurgency, he pointed out. Because Iraq is a civil war between Shiite and Sunni Arabs, Bush administration plans built around training the Shiite-dominated government forces are bound to fail, he said.

I hate to admit it, but that actually makes alot of sense. The only way we do the "Salvador option" is to pick the majority side and turn the Shia loose.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home