"Plan C" - Laying the groundwork for the coup
Senior administration officials are fuelling the rumor.
So, the US is strengthening Maliki by threatening to overthrow him. They are encouraging him to disarm "his" militia by threatening him with a coup.
The result is that some members of the administration are already discussing what one called “Plan C,” even as the administration publicly expresses support for Mr. Maliki. Some senior officials, insisting on anonymity, are discussing alternative leadership for the Iraqi government, including throwing American support behind another Shiite leader, Adel Abdul Mahdi......
Administration officials maintain that there is no American plan afoot to encourage a removal of Mr. Maliki from power, and several senior officials said that if Mr. Maliki does not follow through on his promise to deploy Iraqi Army and police brigades in Baghdad to quell sectarian violence, the Iraqis themselves will move to replace him as prime minister.
So, the US is strengthening Maliki by threatening to overthrow him. They are encouraging him to disarm "his" militia by threatening him with a coup.
posted by mikevotes at
7:49 AM
8 Comments:
Of course, Maliki could always have an unfortunate accident.
It's looking more and more like Maliki's fate will end up being that of President Diem's of South Vietnam in 1963 - yet another parallel to that war.
By
Anonymous, at 9:22 AM
I think it's just machinations to appear evenhanded between the Sunnis and Shiites, as well as to apply pressure.
We seem to have chosen to fight both Sunni and Shiite sides, which puts us squarely in the middle of a civil war.
It also alienates in equal measure all the countries round about.
If this president isn't an idiot, I would really like to know what he's trying to accomplish with continuing instability, loss of life, loss of momentum, and mounting criticism.
Does this administration WANT to spark a larger war? Do they really think Jesus is going to show up, fix everything and sweep up afterward?
By
Anonymous, at 11:19 AM
Abi, They may try to have him replaced through a "constitutional" process, although, I'm not really sure that's available.
The risk if they do try to replace him is that a replacement could stall and Iraq would be left with no leadership at all. I think that's the only reason Maliki is still around.
Local,
Just take a look at the US soldier deaths yesterday. 12 in a helicopter crash in Diyala, allegedly shot down by Sunni Iraqis tied to Al Qaeda. Several dead in Anbar against former Baathist Iraqi nationalist Sunnis. Five dead in Kerbala after a coordinated large operation attack by a Shia militia. And several dead across Baghdad in a variety of combat against Sunnis, Shia, and criminals.
You've got it dead on; the Us is trying to fight everyone at once.
And, I don't think they really want a larger war at this point, at least not all of them, but instead they've boxed themselves in with their previous tough rhetoric and stance so that the only option available is to keep going or look like they're failing. They've forced themselves into this single response, and even when it's not working, in their "understanding" of the middle east, appearing to back down is worse than continuing.
It's wrong, but I think that's where they are.
Mike
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mikevotes, at 1:56 PM
So the enemy, it seems, are the Sunni. And the Shia. Oh, and the Kurds with their Iranian sympathy.
There you have it. If we can just get rid of those damn Iraqis, we will finally have a peaceful and stable Iraq.
If we are seen as meddling to remove Maliki, will Sadr just release whatever brakes he has on his militia? Will our manipulation of the government be the final push Iraqi needs to completely collapse -- to become devoid of any semblance of being a nation?
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-epm, at 4:24 PM
I don't know how Sadr responds to the new US efforts.
He needs to maintain his image, but at the same time, all his actions thus far indicate that he's trying to avoid direct conflict with the US. (smart move.)
If Maliki falls, I would guess you would have a more substantial Mahdi/Sciri fight, which might well draw in the US on the SCIRI/government side. (Leaving the US fighting for the Iranian's party.)
My real fear is that Maliki gets removed and there is a political delay in naming the new leader.
In theory, the US would have that all ironed out before, but, that moment of transition would be the perfect moment to extort more concessions, so someone might step back from the deal locking up the action.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 4:49 PM
Isn't Sadr a political power broker behind the scenes in the Iraqi government? Wouldn't any parliamentary maneuvers to replace Maliki require some sort of agreement with Sadr allies?
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-epm, at 8:49 PM
It depends. The Hadley plan expected a Kurdish, Sciri alliance with one of the moderate Sunni groups to cut Sadr out of relevance. I don't see how that happens at this point, but this administration has tried many things that seemed (and were) impossible.
I still don't see how Maliki goes directly against Sadr and still gets stuff through parliament.
(Parliament has not held a session since Sadr's allies pulled out months ago because they couldn't hit a quorum without them.)
Is Sadr going to return to the parliament, only to have Maliki crack down on him?
I just don't know.
I don't see how the politics can play out in all of this.
Mike
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