Petraeus of Arabia

The headline in the NYTimes piece is certainly that the Bush administration replaced Casey (and presumably Abizaid) with people who would support their strategy for a surge (which has been chosen primarily for it's domestic political applicability not it's military value.)

But, what I want to point out is this,

Having overseen the recent drafting of the military’s counterinsurgency manual, General Petraeus is also likely to change the American military operation in Baghdad. American forces can be expected to take up positions in neighborhoods throughout the capital instead of limiting themselves to conducting patrols from large, fortified bases in and around the city.

The overarching goal of the American military operation may be altered as well. Under General Casey, the principal focus was on transferring security responsibilities to the Iraqi security forces, so American troops could gradually withdraw. Now, the emphasis will shift to protecting the Iraqi population from sectarian strife and insurgent attacks.

The Petraeus plan, and by implication the administration's "new way forward," is to interpose US forces between the factions in a hot civil war.

Coupling this with the post yesterday about Iraqi forces going door to door (which I think I mischaracterized,) the plan seems to be for the US to act in a "holding" role between the various elements trying to tamp down the flaring violence in hotspots while the Iraqi forces go "door to door" to try and disarm the groups.

The big assumption is that the Iraqi government will move quickly to equally disarm all parties in this civil war. If history is any guide, not only will there be "tipoffs" to the targets and selective enforcement, but even the most even handed actions by the government will be seen as sectarian.

This plan presumes an understanding that the Iraqi government is (or can be) a non-sectarian, non-biased central actor. That is not the understanding of the Iraqis, and every action will be seen through a sectarian lens.

Even last night, Maliki was blaming all the violence on Sunni "terrorists" and was expressing reservations about going after the Mahdi army.

In the meantime, US troops will be standing right in the line of fire.