Evidence of Iran in Iraq
Newsweek takes a look at the evidence of Iran supplying Iraqi militants, and it seems to come down to three main points.
1) Iranian brokers buying passive infrared sensors.
2) The appearance of Hezbullah bomb designs.
3) Evidence of smuggling at the borders.
It seems pretty clear that the Iranians are extremely politically active with the Shia and the Kurds, but none of these points marks a hard link to the Iranian government. (especially since almost all of the IED's are from the Sunnis who are not working with Iran.)
State Department Spokesman Sean McCormick says the US will soon make public information showing the Iranians recently arrested in Irbil were in fact involved in violence. I look forward to that.
Also: AFPC(?) will soon be running ads on CNN, Fox, etc. "aimed at educating the American public about the growing threat posed by a nuclear Iran." (I'm kinda curious who is funding them since all their previous work and publications seem to be focused on Russia and China.)
1) Iranian brokers buying passive infrared sensors.
2) The appearance of Hezbullah bomb designs.
3) Evidence of smuggling at the borders.
It seems pretty clear that the Iranians are extremely politically active with the Shia and the Kurds, but none of these points marks a hard link to the Iranian government. (especially since almost all of the IED's are from the Sunnis who are not working with Iran.)
State Department Spokesman Sean McCormick says the US will soon make public information showing the Iranians recently arrested in Irbil were in fact involved in violence. I look forward to that.
Also: AFPC(?) will soon be running ads on CNN, Fox, etc. "aimed at educating the American public about the growing threat posed by a nuclear Iran." (I'm kinda curious who is funding them since all their previous work and publications seem to be focused on Russia and China.)
posted by mikevotes at
2:06 PM
6 Comments:
FYI: I examined this link between Iran and Iraq in a recent blog entry. After discussing both positions I came to the conclusion that:
...perhaps both sides have merit; Iranian weapons and other materials are being smuggled into Iraq, but the weapons are not being supplied to the militias currently engaged in the civil war. This would be consistent with reports that Iranian efforts are directed towards building an infrastructure in Iraq that could be activated in the event of a US attack on Iran, and that these weapons and capabilities are not being used in the current conflict.
cheers
By
Matteo Tomasini, at 3:37 PM
I don't know. I think that's very plausible, but at the same time, I certainly wouldn't be surprised if the Iranians are shipping arms in even to be used right now.
If your goal is to get the Shia militias to align with you, or you want to prop them up, shipping them weapons would certainly be one way to gain alot of pull.
Generally, I don't really question the idea that Iranians are supplying weapons, training or whatever, it's just that thus far, all of the claims point to Iran, but not necessarily to the Iranian government.
If you look at those three points, I could certainly see it as plausible that individual Iranians are acting as brokers smuggling weapons in for money, or as part of nongovernmental support.
Thus far, the US doesn't seem to be turning up large caches of Iranian weapons, but instead finding them scattered.
If the Iranian government is behind it, fine, that's it, but thus far, I haven't seen anything where I can conclusively say, Ahmadinejad or Khamenei signed off on this.
As for the explosives and "Hezbullah technology," that really doesn't work because most of the bombings are Sunni, and I would think "Hezbullah technology" is probably available for those who are looking for it.
On the "pro" side, I can say fairly certainly that official Iranian government personnel are in Iraq and deeply involved in the political process. The real question is how deep they are in the violence.
Thus far, I haven't seen anything hugely convincing. (At least not convincing enough to escalate the risk of war.)
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 4:25 PM
I doubt they'll ever find "kisses from Ahmy" on any of crates they may cease. I doubt the Russians had any evidence of the US backing the Taliban.
And a random thought. One would think that the enemy of your enemy is a friend (Iran backing "Iraq").
By
Anonymous, at 6:01 AM
Well, Stinger missiles, which at the time were very controlled.
Yeah. The Iranians could help stabilize.
By
mikevotes, at 7:29 AM
Right, I wasn't trying to say that there are no weapons from Iran in Iraq being used in current conflict, only that the Iranian government likely isn't behind a concerted effort to supply them. Weapons have been found, can't really dispute that. In the post I referred to above, I included a link to an article which explores the low-level arms smuggling much of which is being conducted by the Marsh Arabs. Pretty interesting read.
Anyway, all in all it's starting to feel a lot like the months prior to the Iraq invasion and this truly scares me. We are hearing a lot of the same rhetoric from US officials about the threat level of Iran and their unwillingness to negotiate. I mean I can't even imagine that the US would want to or could even invade Iran at a time like this, but this administration has surprised me in the past. Maybe Bush wants a last hurrah! before he leaves office. Who knows, but just the prospect of engaging Iran militarily terrifies me.
By
Matteo Tomasini, at 12:17 PM
It's the coordinated nature of the anti-Iran message that's setting your antennae off.
Suddenly, they're evil everywhere all at once.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 1:46 PM
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