Surge or Escalation and the Shia response
There's a decent argument at TPM making the point that the Iraq strategy under discussion is not so much a surge, but an escalation against the Shia militias likely to trigger a Shia insurgency.
But, I think it's critical to add that the Iraqi Shia themselves see this, and are taking steps to circumvent US efforts to go after Sadr.
Maliki has made a US surge conditional on the idea that it only goes after the Sunnis and that he alone is allowed to deal with the militias. (Legally, Maliki could block a surge, however I don't know if he would be honored.)
Second, this morning's report that Sadr's group will likely self impose a ceasefire until after Bush announces his "new way forward" making a direct assault on Mahdi much less politically viable.
The Shia want the US to fight their side of the civil war by degrading the Sunnis while leaving the Shia militia apparatus untouched. If the US does choose to go after Sadr, it will also be taking on the other Shia groups and the Iraqi government, and that would definitely be an escalation, not a surge.
But, I think it's critical to add that the Iraqi Shia themselves see this, and are taking steps to circumvent US efforts to go after Sadr.
Maliki has made a US surge conditional on the idea that it only goes after the Sunnis and that he alone is allowed to deal with the militias. (Legally, Maliki could block a surge, however I don't know if he would be honored.)
Second, this morning's report that Sadr's group will likely self impose a ceasefire until after Bush announces his "new way forward" making a direct assault on Mahdi much less politically viable.
The Shia want the US to fight their side of the civil war by degrading the Sunnis while leaving the Shia militia apparatus untouched. If the US does choose to go after Sadr, it will also be taking on the other Shia groups and the Iraqi government, and that would definitely be an escalation, not a surge.
posted by mikevotes at
2:55 PM
5 Comments:
A guy's on a road trip from New York to Seatle and somewhere along the way he gets lost. With his fuel gage dipping toward the half-way point and not sure if the road he's on is the right one, he pulls into a gas station. He checks his wallet and finds he's got enough to either top off the gas tank or buy a map. The guy decides to by more gas and skip the map.
This is my vision of Bush's Iraq strategy: dispite not knowing how to get to his final goal, he figures if he can just throw enough muscle into it he can brute force his way to a peaceful, democratic Iraq where Sunni, Shia and Kurd all hold hands and sing Kumbia.
By
-epm, at 10:42 AM
That's pretty good, although I'm assuming the analogy is not recent. You can't buy a gallon of gas for the price of a map since 2003.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 11:18 AM
He needs a REALLY good map.
Sheesh! It's an allegory, not an economic treatis.. :)
By
-epm, at 11:41 AM
Oh, I know.
No offense intended. I got the point.
It just made me laugh.
(And, yeah, I think we are past the map point to the GPS map locator with driving instructions.)
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 1:19 PM
I know that you know that I know what you know.... god, I just turned into Rumsfeld.
I took your point in good humor and was feigning outrage... but I know the you know that. (And I know that you know that I know the you know that... Help! Stop me!)
By
-epm, at 2:12 PM
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