North Korean nuclear test
I'm not all atwitter over the N. Korea nuke test for a number of reasons.
1) We knew North Korea had at least 6 nuclear weapons.
2) Although a successful test would offer a slightly greater availability for offensive use, with N. Korea's conventional forces, they really have no need for nukes except for defensive purposes and as a bargaining chip with the international community.
3) I do not believe that their command structure is crazy or suicidal. Any use or sale would lead to guaranteed destruction.
4) The device was reportedly 12,000-15,000 pounds, way too large for missile delivery. (assuming the missile works.) It will take them years with their early 60's technology to shrink the warhead down to a usable missile size.
5) Japan and S. Korea may eventually decide to arm themselves, but, frankly, I think it's naive to present these two technological powerhouses with civilian nuclear programs as if they haven't already done design and computer modelling since the first Yongbyan crisis in '94. It would only take them months to "go nuclear." There is still lots of time to negotiate this situation away.
6) Then there's the very real possibility that this was a "fizzle." (Also here.) (Jane's Defense, too.)
This test is really big diplomatically, but the question to ask is why North Korea did this?
North Korea isn't after nuclear weapons to attack the world. They have said quite clearly that they want economic concessions out of the West and the US and security guarantees. (A US promise to leave the current leadership in control.)
That is the point of this nuclear test, much like the July 4 missile test. It is a diplomatic move attempting to draw the US back to the table. After the Bush administration renegged on the "agreed framework" and eventually terminated all negotiations and contact, North Korea proceeded down this course of escalation all in an effort to restart talks.
As a country, North Korea is starving, both literally and figuratively, and this nuclear program is the one bargaining chip they have in trying gain stability and aid without "opening up" as would be demanded by the "sunshine policy" of the South Koreans or similar overtures by the World Bank.
This is not about nuclear doomsday and it doesn't have to be about an arms race in East Asia. This entire thing is an effort by the N. Koreans to drag the US back to the table looking for a way to maintain their power and preserve their country.
(Maybe I'm missing it, but that's what I see.)
(To me, a wobbly Musharraf government with 50-70 nukes and medium range missiles represents a far larger threat, and on proliferation, poorly secured and corrupt Russian facilities. If nothing else, I think we can agree that N. Korea will maintain security on their weapons.)
1) We knew North Korea had at least 6 nuclear weapons.
2) Although a successful test would offer a slightly greater availability for offensive use, with N. Korea's conventional forces, they really have no need for nukes except for defensive purposes and as a bargaining chip with the international community.
3) I do not believe that their command structure is crazy or suicidal. Any use or sale would lead to guaranteed destruction.
4) The device was reportedly 12,000-15,000 pounds, way too large for missile delivery. (assuming the missile works.) It will take them years with their early 60's technology to shrink the warhead down to a usable missile size.
5) Japan and S. Korea may eventually decide to arm themselves, but, frankly, I think it's naive to present these two technological powerhouses with civilian nuclear programs as if they haven't already done design and computer modelling since the first Yongbyan crisis in '94. It would only take them months to "go nuclear." There is still lots of time to negotiate this situation away.
6) Then there's the very real possibility that this was a "fizzle." (Also here.) (Jane's Defense, too.)
This test is really big diplomatically, but the question to ask is why North Korea did this?
North Korea isn't after nuclear weapons to attack the world. They have said quite clearly that they want economic concessions out of the West and the US and security guarantees. (A US promise to leave the current leadership in control.)
That is the point of this nuclear test, much like the July 4 missile test. It is a diplomatic move attempting to draw the US back to the table. After the Bush administration renegged on the "agreed framework" and eventually terminated all negotiations and contact, North Korea proceeded down this course of escalation all in an effort to restart talks.
As a country, North Korea is starving, both literally and figuratively, and this nuclear program is the one bargaining chip they have in trying gain stability and aid without "opening up" as would be demanded by the "sunshine policy" of the South Koreans or similar overtures by the World Bank.
This is not about nuclear doomsday and it doesn't have to be about an arms race in East Asia. This entire thing is an effort by the N. Koreans to drag the US back to the table looking for a way to maintain their power and preserve their country.
(Maybe I'm missing it, but that's what I see.)
(To me, a wobbly Musharraf government with 50-70 nukes and medium range missiles represents a far larger threat, and on proliferation, poorly secured and corrupt Russian facilities. If nothing else, I think we can agree that N. Korea will maintain security on their weapons.)
posted by mikevotes at
2:12 PM
2 Comments:
I like your analysis. From the beginning its been very clear that this is an issue of security guarantees and aid. If past actions are a guide this will in fact bring the US back to the table.
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le-enfant-terrible.blogspot.com
By
Unknown, at 4:07 PM
I'm thinking about this more and more, the only real solution that doesn't lead in the midterm to an arms race is direct negotiations.
The problem is, you can' walk in today and offer those negotiations because it puts you in a weak stance.
I think the answer is to talk and look tough for about 6 months, and then very quietly work the backchannels to restart the bilateral talks that should have been going on all along.
And, I would give food aid and a security gurantee, but only after a long fight. It really costs nothing, can later be abridged in the face of "new evidence," and the N Koreans would give up a ton to get it.
Because of the blackmail nature of the relationship from the N Korean side, it's extremely important that any changes be hard fought.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 4:43 PM
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