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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Sunday, October 01, 2006

Iraq - Sadr orders weapons down.

Muqtada al Sadr has issued an order for his followers to temporarily put down their weapons.

The article speculates that this move made two weeks ago is either an effort to politically distance himself from the sectarian violence for the Iraqi domestic audience, or intended to put off a US offensive by demonstrating "good behavior."

Without question it is in his interest to avoid a direct conflict with the US, but at the same time alot of the force of his militia and his popularity overall is rooted in anti-American sentiment. We've already seen some reports of fractures in his militia along these lines.

Sadr is balancing on an increasingly thin fence between his legitimate political ambitions and the "fire" that is driving his movement. Sadr is a long way from falling, but the complications of his successful dual role are increasing.

Also, in Turkey, the PKK has offered a ceasefire!

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