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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Thursday, September 21, 2006

Karl Rove promises October Surprise

Really? Will there really be a serious October surprise, or is this just to rally the beleagured Republican troops?

posted by mikevotes at 11:22 AM

13 Comments:

  • You were right about the coup in Thailand! You're good.

    http://www.zaman.com/?bl=international&alt=&trh=20060921&hn=36679

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:35 AM  

  • Thanks.

    Unfortunately, I don't know jack about Thailand.

    Mike

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 11:43 AM  

  • It's probably bullshit, but it serves to boost confidence, just like the recent poll numbers (now the LA Times/Bloomberg poll has Bush up at 44% - a level GOPers claim is no longer an impediment to their midterm chances.)

    Chuck Todd wrote on MSNBC/National Journal today that the GOP uptick is most likely temporary, but if it scares Dems into engaging the GOP on Iraq and terrorism and simply turning to domestic issues, it will be a permanent uptick.

    By Blogger Reality-Based Educator, at 12:40 PM  

  • I do think he has something, but without orchestrating world events, it's probably not that big a deal. Probably pulling out some item on the nat'l security front or somesuch. I don't see Bin Laden appearing.

    Short of right before the election, this two week push is the Republican's key spot. They absolutely have to break the conventional wisdom right here before inevitability sets in.

    I've decided to stop closely poll watching, but I would agree that this move is largely a surge and bound to sag some. The question is how much.

    The Repubs had to put a push on, but from what I've seen so far, a lift in Bush's poll numbers hasn't equated to a serious reestimation of congress or the Senate.

    I think the Republicans are just trying to nullify the negative right now.

    Just random thoughts.

    (Oh, there's talk of an October deadline for Iran.)

    Mike

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 1:14 PM  

  • I think it has to do with the October deadline for Iran. War has served them well in the past, why would they not use it again?
    (p.s. Can I change my date in your pick the day we bomb Iran contest?)

    By Blogger Lew Scannon, at 3:35 PM  

  • Oh yeah. Mine was two days ago, Tuesday.

    I have you down as Nov. 22.

    Just leave a new date in the comments on a recent post or the original, here.

    http://bornatthecrestoftheempire.blogspot.com/2006/04/date-iran-bombing-contest.html



    And, thinking about surprises, maybe a new VP or Sec Def? That's really be throwing the cards in the air, though.

    What's Harriet Miers doing now?

    Mike

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 5:14 PM  

  • I took October 30th or 31st - I think I'm still in the race. And I think Lew's dead right about the "October Surprise."

    By Blogger Reality-Based Educator, at 6:59 PM  

  • Jeez, if they go into Iran in October, I may move to Thailand!

    By the way, wasn't there talk of an October surprise in 2004? Was there one?

    Cephas
    http://cephasworld.blogspot.com

    PS I was in Thailand in April/May--it's great! Even without democracy! :)

    By Blogger Cephas, at 7:32 PM  

  • Reality based, I would agree except that I don't think that it would be preannounced as part of a political talk. I do think that Iran is a very real possibility, I just find it hard to believe that Rove would pre-seed it as a political move. There's no political upside in doing so, and the blowback could be huge if the top political officer was caught saying that Iran was a political move. Ya know?

    Cephas, I may be wrong, but my memory says there was talk, but it wasn't from the administration. It was just speculation from outside. This is pretty unusual.

    Mike

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 8:34 PM  

  • The Bin Laden video tape released on the Friday before the election certainly worked as an "October Surprise" in '04, at least in retrospect. Most analysts think it helped Bush overall. I doubt the administration had anything to do w/ that, however.

    Mike, good point about Rove being too smart to "seed" the Surprise story in the media. it probably is just nuts talking out their asses.

    Which of course doesn't mean I don't think Rove's got something planned for Halloween and after.

    By Blogger Reality-Based Educator, at 9:49 PM  

  • I think if it's a political move, replacing Cheney/Rumsfeld or something, it makes sense to seed it, but announcing that you're going to bomb a foreign nation for domestic politics doesn't.

    And, everyday not talking about Iraq......

    Mike

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 10:33 PM  

  • I think if it's a political move, replacing Cheney/Rumsfeld or something...

    How about Bush replacing Rove?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:16 PM  

  • Before this elelction?

    Rove does have to start making his post Bush plans, and since he's a political guy he would have to sign up with one of the next candidates.

    Hmmmmmm..... That's interesting.

    Mike

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 6:34 AM  

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