Political Bits
Claude Allen former chief White House domestic policy advisor told the judge while pleading guilty that he had shoplifted 25 times because of the stress brought onto him in dealing with Katrina. He got probation and community service.
Meanwhile, the people who shoplifted in New Orleans after Katrina, stealing 27 bottles of liquor, got 15 years. That seems fair, huh?
Rawstory claims to have gotten hold of a memo outlining the Senate Republican's strategy for campaigning in August.
2008 Republican hopeful Hagel jumps on the withdrawal bandwagon.
And, Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report which helps set the conventional wisdom,
Meanwhile, the people who shoplifted in New Orleans after Katrina, stealing 27 bottles of liquor, got 15 years. That seems fair, huh?
Rawstory claims to have gotten hold of a memo outlining the Senate Republican's strategy for campaigning in August.
2008 Republican hopeful Hagel jumps on the withdrawal bandwagon.
And, Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report which helps set the conventional wisdom,
"Time is running out for Republicans. Unless something dramatic happens before Election Day, Democrats will take control of the House. And the chances that they’ll seize the Senate are rising toward 50-50.
posted by mikevotes at
6:02 PM
7 Comments:
Cook's comments are interesting. The next phase should see a sort of fatalism anong Republican campaigners, with some going so far as predicting loss.
There will still be pockets of enthusiasm, but they are up against a sort of tiredness by key campaigners.
That's if thigs run to form at least.
By
Cartledge, at 6:58 PM
I'm not sold on making determinations right now, there's still so far to go before the election, but the conventional wisdom does create a tide in that it influences media coverage and the questions that are asked.
And, you m,ay not know the effect of gerrymandering. That's the process by which the congressional districts are drawn. Now with computers, their ability to choose their voters creates a serious inertia to change. (Something like 93% of incumbents are reelected.)
On the other hand, because they try to slice every district 53/47 so they can have as many as they can, a big swing in public opinion can turn over alot of seats at once.
Still too much water still to go to make predictions, but it's interesting.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 8:43 PM
Anecdotally, nearly every poll update at Taegan Goddard's Political Wire seems to be moving in the direction of Democrats. This means nothing, of course, with the elections three months away. But it is a good sign for now and it is nice to have the conventional wisdom be that a Category 4 or 5 Political Storm is heading for Republicans. Here are some of the recent headlines on Goddard's site:
Gerlach/Murphy Dead Heat (and Dem Murphy leads in cash on hand)
Herseth in Landslide (GOP thought that had a shot to knock her off in S.D.)
Delay To remain on Texas Ballot
Lamont Maintains Lead over Lieberman
Are Republicans Conceding KY-04? (One GOP insider says first term Republican Geoff Davis has been written off by the RNC - Dem challenger has solid lead in the polls)
CQ Changes Montana Race from "Leans Republican" to Toss-Up" after Conrad Burns criticizes firemen.
One discordant note for Dems - a new poll shows Santorum closing to within a few points of Casey in Pennsylvania.
We're a long way away from November, so I'm trying to keep it all in perspective. But taking into account the money raised, the number of districts considered "in play" this year as opposed to last, and the poll numbers for Dems in many of those districts and states, I am feeling cautiously optimistic that there's at least a shot to take back one of the chambers.
Fingers crossed.
By
Reality-Based Educator, at 10:21 AM
Same. There's still alot of time, so I'm not putting much into anything at this point. Alot could happen, an October surprise, Iran, etc..
But, it's always better to have the wind with you.
The one thing I haven't seen is Wicked Witch Scmidt's seat in Ohio mentioned. Hackett pushed her so hard, and then she went off on Murtha. I was under the impression that she was vulnerable, but I never see her on any of the lists.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 12:57 PM
Mike, that's the thing - Schmidt is vulnerable. I remember seeing a post on the Daily Kos (link below) showing Mean Jean tied with her opponent (a Dr. Victoria Wulsin) even though the Democrat is not considered a top tier candidate and Washington Dems have basically written off the race. Scmidt's approval rating was only 33% at the time of the poll, so she can definitely be knocked off if the political storm is a category 4 or 5 as Charlie Cook says, even though her district is redder than red.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/7/12/1343/48850
By
Reality-Based Educator, at 8:56 PM
I've just been surprised that she's not normally included in the lists after she was pushed so hard by hackett who had no previous experience.
But that's probably it, the experts look at the voting history seperate from the reality that Hackett was close and she's a uniquely disliked Republican. They're probably running their little model on what happened in 2004 presidential and the history of that being a red seat which should mean that she's not vulnerable.
But she is.
Good point.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 9:03 PM
I'm well connveeersant with the gerrymander, it creates a great safety margin, but isn't foolproof.
There are a range of ways of skewing the vote, but there comes a time when a government, or majority perhaps, loses inertia as you say.
They become tired of the pressure of staying in front, they become tired off putting out brush fires and worse.
The elecctorate pick up on that, and when part of the weariness is driving a poor economy then not much will save them.
But youu are right, It is still too early, and there is only one poll!
By
Cartledge, at 10:02 PM
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