Iraq is a failure.
200 killed in the last 5 days, with today's violence killing "at least" 66. After a fairly placid few weeks in Baghdad after the start of Operation Forward Together, this week the violence has returned to roughly the same level. So the numbers for the month will probably be down, but the trend has returned to its previous arc.
The press is beginning to recognize already the return of violence in the face of "Forward Together." NYTimes "defied stepped-up efforts." AP "despite U.S. and Iraqi officials' claims." AFP "undermined a massive security crackdown." Reuters "as militants defy a major security crackdown."
And in relation to the crackdown, note the sophistication of the attacks in Baghdad.
A Reuters report cites a "barrage of seven rockets was spread over neighborhoods in the mainly Shiite east of the city." In Baghdad.
This is all a really big deal, because this is the last US chip on the table. Despite the fact that the US presence is now up to 140,000 in Iraq, the militants are still able to carry on complex, timed, multi-pronged attacks. This is the last shot at US credibility.
ALSO: The Iraqi Defense Minister (friendly to the US) has cancelled the Iraqi govrnment's truce with the Shia militias in Diwaniyah demanding an "extraordinary security plan" be implemented in the city. What that means is very unclear. (Remember the Iraqi security forces are primarily Shia SCIRI while the Diwaniyah millitants are Sadr.)
The Diwaniyah incident is significant because it is the largest Shia/Shia confrontation thus far, however, there have been previous similar flareups around Basra. The thing to note in these flareups is that they are primarily for control of areas and their resources.
We are now seeing the beginnings of "warlord-ism" in sections of Shia Iraq. That development, as it is elsewhere around the world, is emblematic of a weak non-functioning central government.
Bottom line of this post. The US no longer represents a significant, credible deterrent to acts of violence in Iraq. The influence of the Iraqi government has shrunk to the Green Zone except where the government's interests happen to coincide with some larger more effective armed group.
There is no more brake as Iraq slides towards warlordism and open civil war.
Iraq is a failure.
The press is beginning to recognize already the return of violence in the face of "Forward Together." NYTimes "defied stepped-up efforts." AP "despite U.S. and Iraqi officials' claims." AFP "undermined a massive security crackdown." Reuters "as militants defy a major security crackdown."
And in relation to the crackdown, note the sophistication of the attacks in Baghdad.
The closely spaced attacks in an eastern part of the capital included two car bombs — one at a popular market and one on a street about 1.5 miles away. The area also was hit by four mortar rounds, two rockets, a roadside bomb and a bomb in a building, police said.
A Reuters report cites a "barrage of seven rockets was spread over neighborhoods in the mainly Shiite east of the city." In Baghdad.
This is all a really big deal, because this is the last US chip on the table. Despite the fact that the US presence is now up to 140,000 in Iraq, the militants are still able to carry on complex, timed, multi-pronged attacks. This is the last shot at US credibility.
ALSO: The Iraqi Defense Minister (friendly to the US) has cancelled the Iraqi govrnment's truce with the Shia militias in Diwaniyah demanding an "extraordinary security plan" be implemented in the city. What that means is very unclear. (Remember the Iraqi security forces are primarily Shia SCIRI while the Diwaniyah millitants are Sadr.)
The Diwaniyah incident is significant because it is the largest Shia/Shia confrontation thus far, however, there have been previous similar flareups around Basra. The thing to note in these flareups is that they are primarily for control of areas and their resources.
We are now seeing the beginnings of "warlord-ism" in sections of Shia Iraq. That development, as it is elsewhere around the world, is emblematic of a weak non-functioning central government.
Bottom line of this post. The US no longer represents a significant, credible deterrent to acts of violence in Iraq. The influence of the Iraqi government has shrunk to the Green Zone except where the government's interests happen to coincide with some larger more effective armed group.
There is no more brake as Iraq slides towards warlordism and open civil war.
Iraq is a failure.
posted by mikevotes at
3:00 PM
6 Comments:
Cronkite moment?
By
zen, at 3:53 PM
Yeah.
I had held out some slight hope, however irrational. Despite all the apparent likelihoods, I still saw some slim chance that Iraq could be brought back in. It would've taken miracles, and some people working against their own interests, but it was still a very outside possibility.
From where we are now, the only way I see for a stable Iraq in the near/mid term is a strongman, but he would have to be very bloody on scale with Saddam.
He would also have to come from a major faction with his own trusted fighters. So either Sadr or SCIRI.
Either way, the other regional players will pour in massive support against him. Saudis and Jordanians to the Sunnis, Iranians to one of the Shia factions. UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Syria, and Turkey will all support sides.
The experiment failed and the patient is dead.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 4:52 PM
I think you're right.
I was trying to gather my thoughts on this, net neutrality, the deal with Iran and the state of our intel, energy policy, etc...to ask Jim Webb this weekend when I attend a banquet fundraiser. But have learned that he will not be there.
He is taking the weekend off of campaigning—in a very tight senate race, in which he's come from 19 points down, to ahead by 3—to spend time with his son. His son Jimmy is a Marine shipping out to Iraq next week.
What a real family of heroes. I really hope Webb beats the pants off of Allen.
By
zen, at 8:31 PM
Bummer. Sorry you're going to miss him, but if he's taking days off, that means he's feeling good enough that he can.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 8:37 PM
I came to the same conclusion a long time ago, without the facts you have been putting together.
By
Unknown, at 9:29 PM
I kinda did, too, but I had always allowed the slight possibility that somehow the parties might be cajoled into some sort of power sharing agreement. I never could see how, but I had always allowed that outside possibility.
But in order for that to work, all parties must have faith that the gov't/American forces are capable of enforcing any such reconciliation.
Although the violence has been going on at obscene levels for too long time, I had always figured that there was one last ditch effort left.
Together Forward is that last ditch.
And with it, goes any possible credibility the Maliki gov't might have had at enforcing anything.
Whatever sliver of hope there was is now gone.
There's nothing left in Iraq but the dying.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 9:48 PM
Post a Comment
<< Home