Touching the powderkeg
US and vaguely defined Iraqi forces arrested a major leader of the Mehdi army today, unconfirmed as Abu Deraa. Sadr, through a representative, has blamed the US and is demanding an immediate withdrawal. (AP) "The situation is tense and the Mehdi Army is deploying in the streets," said the official." (AFP)
(I refer to the Iraqi forces as "vaguely defined" because there is a significant political difference whether this was conducted by the predominantly Sunni army or the Shia Interior Ministry, or some group of mixed troops, and reading every source easily at hand, I could find no distinction beyond "Iraqi troops." NYTimes, AP, Reuters, AFP.)
Sadr "and his allies control at least 30 of the 275 seats in Parliament as well as several important ministries, making him one of the country's most powerful political leaders." (NYTimes)
This operation was ostensibly related to the kidnapping of Sunni female legislator Tayseer al-Mashhadani and seven of her bodyguards. (Canadian Press) "The Sunni Arab bloc announced Sunday it was suspending participation in the legislature until al-Mashhadani was freed." (AP)
This is a really big move by Maliki in taking on Sadr. Sadr is not only one of the biggest political forces, but through his affiliated militias, the largest and most organized in the country. Sadr is a military force on par with the Iraqi government.
Thus far, most of the violence between the Sadr's militias and Iraqi/American forces has been frictional as each has pursued its own goals. But if this event turns the guns of the Shia towards the government and/or the US, Iraq may be about to become still more unstable. What happens to the fragile Iraqi security forces if some fraction of the Shia who have infiltrated the 146,000 strong Facilities Protection Services and the militia presence in the Interior Ministry choose sides against the government?
It's still too early in this to tell how far this schism is going to go, (hopefully an acommodation is reached,) but Maliki is in an awful position. In order to bring the Sunnis into the government, he has to go after the Shia militias.
This could be really significant or just another day in Iraq depending on how Sadr wants to play it. I just don't have a sense of where his best interests lie. We'll just have to wait and see.
UPDATE: Two items from the BBC version. "A senior official in Moqtada Sadr's office said the intended target of the operation was Abu Dera, a senior figure in the Mehdi Army, who is still at liberty."
Also, I neglected to mention that this took place in Sadr City, Baghdad.
(I refer to the Iraqi forces as "vaguely defined" because there is a significant political difference whether this was conducted by the predominantly Sunni army or the Shia Interior Ministry, or some group of mixed troops, and reading every source easily at hand, I could find no distinction beyond "Iraqi troops." NYTimes, AP, Reuters, AFP.)
Sadr "and his allies control at least 30 of the 275 seats in Parliament as well as several important ministries, making him one of the country's most powerful political leaders." (NYTimes)
This operation was ostensibly related to the kidnapping of Sunni female legislator Tayseer al-Mashhadani and seven of her bodyguards. (Canadian Press) "The Sunni Arab bloc announced Sunday it was suspending participation in the legislature until al-Mashhadani was freed." (AP)
This is a really big move by Maliki in taking on Sadr. Sadr is not only one of the biggest political forces, but through his affiliated militias, the largest and most organized in the country. Sadr is a military force on par with the Iraqi government.
Thus far, most of the violence between the Sadr's militias and Iraqi/American forces has been frictional as each has pursued its own goals. But if this event turns the guns of the Shia towards the government and/or the US, Iraq may be about to become still more unstable. What happens to the fragile Iraqi security forces if some fraction of the Shia who have infiltrated the 146,000 strong Facilities Protection Services and the militia presence in the Interior Ministry choose sides against the government?
It's still too early in this to tell how far this schism is going to go, (hopefully an acommodation is reached,) but Maliki is in an awful position. In order to bring the Sunnis into the government, he has to go after the Shia militias.
This could be really significant or just another day in Iraq depending on how Sadr wants to play it. I just don't have a sense of where his best interests lie. We'll just have to wait and see.
UPDATE: Two items from the BBC version. "A senior official in Moqtada Sadr's office said the intended target of the operation was Abu Dera, a senior figure in the Mehdi Army, who is still at liberty."
Also, I neglected to mention that this took place in Sadr City, Baghdad.
posted by mikevotes at
5:06 PM
2 Comments:
I think it's both significant and just another day in Iraq.
Every which way anyone who tries to lead in Iraq turns, they run into armed opposition with regional support. It looks like long termed civil war is going to be the only result. Maybe when enough people get tired, the fighting will stop a la Lebannon.
By
Greyhair, at 7:21 PM
I agree. This is just the first time that the government has taken any sort of motion towards Sadr and the Mehdi.
There was the supposed "iron fist" in Basra against a far smaller splinter Shia group which did not support Maliki, but even that turned out to be a token gesture. It was carried out by Shia elements in the security forces and really did nothing.
So, I'm just surprised by this.
It could be treated as just a settling among the power structure similar to a gangland killing, I just don't know.
As you can tell by the oversourcing, I'm trying to get some sort of grip on it.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 8:53 PM
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