Maliki's settlement deal
The count is now up to 11 small/non-mainstream insurgent groups who have entered into negotiations with the Maliki government. That's slightly good news in kind of a "toys for guns" kinda way.
Of course, their agreement would require a two year timetable for a complete US withdrawal, and if you're here, I think you see the improbability of that. Interestingly, this does put Maliki on the spot as to whether he'll commit to a US withdrawal or not, and that could significantly undermine him politically.
(In the Reuters version, there is mention about 2/3 of the way down of the capture of one of the Feb. 22 shrine bombers who gave his fellow bombers up. "It was not clear under what circumstances the confession was obtained. ")
UPDATE: Maliki rejected the premise of a withdrawal timeline. (Halfway down.)
Of course, their agreement would require a two year timetable for a complete US withdrawal, and if you're here, I think you see the improbability of that. Interestingly, this does put Maliki on the spot as to whether he'll commit to a US withdrawal or not, and that could significantly undermine him politically.
(In the Reuters version, there is mention about 2/3 of the way down of the capture of one of the Feb. 22 shrine bombers who gave his fellow bombers up. "It was not clear under what circumstances the confession was obtained. ")
UPDATE: Maliki rejected the premise of a withdrawal timeline. (Halfway down.)
posted by mikevotes at
1:46 PM
5 Comments:
Reconciliation: what a concept.
We - my family and I - were blessed to be able to see the Dalai Lama last fall at Rutgers. He spoke about "war, peace, and reconciliation." Now, we knew what he would have to say about the first two subjects. But that last one... now that's the toughie. He spoke about the people in South Africa and Rwanda and other places who are actively working towards reconciliation in those places, where so many horrible things have been done.
Now that's the Lord's work. And, man, it has to be hard. But the thing is, you have to *want* to. And our current regime isn't interested. Why should they be?
By
QuakerDave, at 3:36 PM
I figure Maliki will not talk about concessions until more groups are on board, or at least talking. The whole thing is really just feather ruffling I think. Clever move by the militias however, as you point out.
Maliki is doomed on this one. He is in no position to agree to any timetable.
By
Praguetwin, at 4:19 PM
QuakerDave, Reconciliation will be a key part of any end to this neverending conflict, but my sense is that the situation isn't stable enough, and the opposition to the government is still too fractured.
There's no single group to make a deal with. I mean, this is 11 groups and they still don't represent the majority of the Sunni part of the violence. How do you manage a deal with 30 or 40 parties? How is it policed?
Reconciliation will be a big part of any longterm settlement.
And, Praguetwin, he's Maliki's really hemmed himself in. If the negotiations fail, everyone goes back to the civil war with more skepticism next time it's brought up. To succeed, I think he's going to have to take positions other Shia won't like which will severely stress his government.
(On the other hand, if he does somehow end the violence, dude should get the Nobel peace prize. Because that would be one of the most positive steps for the world in a decade.)
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 4:36 PM
I'm sure he wants to end the violence. I can't figure out if this was a genuine attempt to do so, or if it was a political move (i.e. a "look tough" move). Either way, it seems to be backfiring in that his hand is being called and there is little hope that even a majority of Sunni insurgents (much less people like Sadr) are interested in disarming.
By
Praguetwin, at 4:15 AM
Is it a real attempt at settlement? I really don't know either, but I think that's a really key question in trying to look forward.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 9:02 AM
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