Iraq spin

Look, the main obstacles to a new Iraqi government forming have always been the Interior and Defense ministries, Interior controls the security forces and Defense the army. Basically, who and which faction control these two key posts will determine which faction's violence will be overlooked, or in the case of the Interior Ministry and the Shia militias, encouraged.

Sure, there was a lot of contention over who would control the cultural folios like education or the economic folios like the oil ministry, but within the context of the civil war, the posts backed by guns of official authority are the real gems.

So, to announce the formation of an Iraqi government with these two posts open is somewhat ingenuine. Yes, it does represent progress that they are able to reach some agreements on the less important posts, but the ministries of main contention, the ministries responsible for establishing security, are still vacant.

As a supporting example, let me offer the refugees. If the threats and violence which are causing ethnic cleansing are tamped down in one area, but allowed to persist in another, it would alter the geographic/factional dispersion giving one group more territory while allowing another faction to be driven off in other areas.