Kurdish Peshmerga in Kirkuk/Preparing for Open Civil War

One of the major disagreements in the formation of a new Iraqi government has been what exactly constitutes a militia and what actions to take regarding them. The new Prime Minister Al Miliki has recently been making noises about disbanding the Kurdish Peshmerga, a militia force that has existed in its current form back into the early 90's.

"I'm confident that the militias, and there are more than 11 militias, must be disarmed," al-Maliki said. "There's no difference between one militia and others."

But the current Kurdish president of Iraq is attempting to hang on to their 70,000 strong fighting force.

Even the country's Kurdish president appears unwilling to lay down arms. Jalal Talabani, speaking yesterday to reporters in Erbil, defended the 70,000-strong Kurdish peshmerga militia as a "regulated force."

But, this is not some esoteric discussion, it is a significant dispute which may have serious ramifications going forward. During Saddam's rule, 300,000 Kurds were forced out of Kirkuk to the north while Arabs from elsewhere in the country were brought in to resettle the city in an effort to pacify it.

With the Iraqi Constitution calling for a referendum on Kurdish independence before the end of 2007, the clock is ticking on establishing the dispensation of Kirkuk. So, when I see reports like this, I begin to see the geographical boundaries of the coming civil war.

KIRKUK, Iraq - Hundreds of Shiite Muslim militiamen have deployed in recent weeks to this restive city -- widely considered the most likely flash point for an Iraqi civil war -- vowing to fight any attempt to shift control over Kirkuk to the Kurdish-governed north, according to U.S. commanders and diplomats, local police and politicians.....

The Mahdi Army, led by firebrand cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, has sent at least two companies, each with about 120 fighters, according to Thomas Wise, political counselor for the U.S. Embassy's Kirkuk regional office, which has been tracking militia activity. The Badr Organization, the armed wing of Iraq's largest Shiite political party, has also boosted its presence and opened several offices across the region, military officers here said.

Oh, and did I mention that Kirkuk is the center of one of Iraq's richest oil regions?

Possession of Kirkuk would be the key to the Kurd's survival as an independent entity, allowing them wealth, stability and security in their support of the rebel Kurdish movements in southern Turkey and northern Iran.

But in order to possess Kirkuk, the Kurds will have to first establish indisputable control, and it sounds like the Shia are not yet willing to reliquish it.

Many pro-Bush US commentators have made the point that Iraq is not yet in civil war because there has not been open street fighting. But as I've written before, because of the ethnically integrated nature of Iraq during Saddam's reign, the Iraq civil war would have to proceed in stages.

Much like the war in former Yugoslavia, there has to be a period of ethnic cleansing, a forcible expurgation as we are seeing in the death squads and refugees, that would establish the ethnic boundaries of the various factions. Only then, would the various factions begin their battles for border terriroties.

As this story, and the recent events in Adhamiyah, indicate, we are growing closer to that open territorial warfare that characterizes traditional civil wars.

(Question: I have been doing more "thought pieces" lately like this post and the next one and am looking for feedback. Is this a good thing? Would you prefer shorter posts with more article links? Do you come by here looking for Mike's opinion, or as a starting point for your own reading? Or is it just all about the pictures, so who cares what I write. Just trying to get some kind of idea about all this.)

UPDATE: As I was wandering around the blogworld I came across this article link over at Carbon Paper pointing out that the Iranians and Turks are preparing for further Kurdish activity by building up troops along their borders.