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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Wednesday, December 28, 2005

Iraqi Civil War - Kurds preparing to seize Kirkuk (KR)

Looks like the starting deployments for the Iraqi civil war are being filled. The Kurds, it appears, have been using the constant conflicts between the Sunni and Shia to position their forces to retake oil rich Kirkuk. It was the likely action, given the Kurds expulsion from the oil rich region, but this Knight-Ridder article seems to place the likely first major battle of the Iraqi civil war there in the very near future.

KIRKUK, Iraq - Kurdish leaders have inserted more than 10,000 of their militia members into Iraqi army divisions in northern Iraq to lay the groundwork to swarm south, seize the oil-rich city of Kirkuk and possibly half of Mosul, Iraq's third-largest city, and secure the borders of an independent Kurdistan......

Their strategy(the Kurds) mirrors that of Shiite Muslim parties in southern Iraq, which have stocked Iraqi army and police units with members of their own militias and have maintained a separate militia presence throughout Iraq's central and southern provinces. The militias now are illegal under Iraqi law but operate openly in many areas. Peshmerga leaders said in interviews that they expected the Shiites to create a semi-autonomous and then independent state in the south as they would do in the north.

The Bush administration - and Iraq's neighbors - oppose the nation's fragmentation, fearing that it could lead to regional collapse.


Also, we've heard alot from the Bush admin about the "beacon of freedom in a part of the world that is desperate for freedom and liberty" which "will serve as such an optimistic and hopeful example for reformers from Tehran to Damascus."

We haven't heard so much about the fears that an Iraqi fragmentation coud lead to a regional collapse.

Clap harder, Bush administration, Tinkerbell is dying.

6 Comments:

  • do you think the UK and US are just going to say 'we won and thats the end of it' and leave next year?

    By Blogger michael the tubthumper, at 10:40 AM  

  • Some think the Kurds are under contract to U.S. owned enterprises. Makes sense.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:55 AM  

  • Michael, yes, I think that if Iraq goes into full civil war, the pressure to withdraw will be immense. So, I think that they would try to do that.

    And Mary, interesting point. I haven't seen anything confirming that directly, but it would find a commonality with big corporations enlisting militias which has happened all over the world, from the gold and diamond miners in Africa to Unocal in Burma, to the support of friendly gov'ts in South America.

    There were reports that there were Israelis working with the Kurds on their organization and tactics(Sy Hersh about a year ago,) but I haven't seen any reports of pre civil war oil negotiations for instance.

    If you've got some sorta source on that, I would love to see it, because that would be giant. American oil companies actively working to undermine the formation of an Iraqi gov't.

    If you've got a source, please send it to me.

    Mike

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 1:05 PM  

  • Uh oh! Reminds me of what happened to Yugoslavia. Take away the dictator, and the diferent peoples decide that they don't really want to live in the same country with oneanother anymore.

    By Blogger Justin, at 3:35 PM  

  • This is what happens when you put a fringe group in charge of foreign policy.

    By Blogger Graeme, at 8:10 PM  

  • Oddly, at least in southern Iraq and the future greater Kurdistan, the situation could stabilize very quickly, but two things have to happen. First, they need to secure their borders against the largely Sunni provinces. Second they need to put down any militias that want to seek revenge on the Sunni minorities in each area.

    I don't think that anything can prevent general civil war in the Sunni areas.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:27 PM  

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