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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Friday, October 24, 2008

Fantasy numbers out of Florida

For some reason, I'm watching the Florida game closely.
Through their persistent registration drive, Florida Democrats have doubled their lead in registered voters since last year, from about 312,000 to almost 660,000, according to state figures released on Monday. That surge of new registrants -- plus 600,000 African-Americans and an overlapping 900,000 young people who were already registered in 2004 but didn't vote -- could "fundamentally change the state,"

7.5 million people voted in Fla in 2004, and they're talking at least 1.2 million (15%?) new available voters with at least 950K (12%) new available Dem or black voters?

Now, those probably aren't all valid, and they're not all going to show up, but almost any of that tips Florida at least a couple percent.

(Oh, and there doesn't appear to be an Ohio-like effort to scrub the Florida voter rolls. Surprising. Is that Crist?)

Related: Nagourney writes about McCain's mistakes in Florida.
(McCain lost Crist because they didn't show Crist's convention video?)


  • Several election analyses have shown that newly-registered voters turn out about 90% of the time.

    But you are right: they aren't all valid and they all won't show up.

    It is a big change, though, and a big advantage for Obama.

    I'll go out on limb here and say that I think the biggest surprise of this election will be how few Republicans actually turn out. There is a lot of disillusionment and a big enthusiasm gap in that camp. If lines are long and credentials are demanded, it could very well be marginal Republicans skipping out, not Obama supporters. In states where McCain is strong, a lot of Republicans could skip voting, too.

    By Blogger Todd Dugdale , at 4:16 PM  

  • And, those are two different numbers combined in there. There are both newly registered, some 350K, and then there are the overlapping groups of registered but didn't vote in the past blacks and young.

    In that first group of newly registereds, I would expect pretty good turnout.

    It's in that second group I'm not so sure. How many moved, are ineligible for some reason, won't vote, etc.


    I see your enthusiasm point, and all the news definitely isn't helping, but Repubs generally turnout pretty reliably.

    Maybe those softer towards the middle or independent leaning republicans will waver, and there will probably be a little more "stay home" among the base, but I just don't know if I can go to Republicans don't show up.

    However, that may be lost anyhow if the Obama machine delivers half of what they're talking about.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 4:22 PM  

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