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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Chuck Todd gives Obama 286 EV on NBC's map

On the NBC nightly news, Chuck Todd said he'll be moving both Colo and Virginia to lean Obama on the NBC projection map.

Big news in a CW sense because he has been so cautious, and because he's listened to by a lot of people who matter.

(He's part of the Meet the Press panel tomorrow AM.)

Also, (LATimes) Early-voting trends appear to favor Barack Obama.


  • People laughed at me two weeks ago when I predicted 349 EVs for Obama.

    fivethirtyeight.com is saying 349 EVs now

    Nevada also looks to be gone from McCain's map.

    And, as I've said before, the polling shows a worst-case scenario for Obama due to the restrictive "likely voter" models.

    By Blogger Todd Dugdale , at 7:37 PM  

  • From where we are, Nevada does look gone.

    To me, we're now at the next tier of the polling, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina.

    And I get your point about likely voters, but I'm a little more hesitant to blanket that authoritatively across every poll simply because you have to figure at least one of the states will likely underperform polling.

    However, I think Florida, because it's a focus, is a lock to have turnout +, North Carolina seems in that category, probably Va and Ohio.

    Not so sure on Missouri, Indiana because those weren't early focus states, so I'm not sure how much work was done over the summer relative to the expected tossup states.

    (I still think their machine, coupled with enthusiasm will likely outperform McCain everywhere.)

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 9:31 PM  

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