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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Tied? .... Freaking Tied?!?!?!?

In a quick non-analytical read, it seems that the news consensus is calling last night a tie although Clinton is shading it. (There are still hundreds of delegates as yet unapportioned.)

My prediction was that Clinton would shade the day only to lose the spin war going forward. Watch how the media characterize the efforts. "Obama from way behind two weeks ago." Phrases like "Clinton hung on...."

That will really matter.

(The storyline going forward appears to be, likely Obama leaning states with a huge Obama money/fundraising advantage. I have no idea if that's accurate, but it's campaign shaping spin.)

Update: NBC is projecting right now that Obama wins more delegates, a tiny +10, but that would affect spin.

As example from the Obama campaign, "Obama wins Super Tuesday by winning more states and more delegates."


  • I wonder how much the spin war does matter. After all, the spin (at various times) had McCain dead, Huckabee irrelevant, Obama without a chance, Hillary dead, Hillary inevitable again, etc. etc.

    Having been wrong so many times, I wonder if the media will now choose as its narrative "It's too close to call!" (on the Democratic side) and focus on the Doomsday Scenario: a fight all the way to the convention floor and perhaps even beyond (I can easily see litigation over the Michigan and Florida delegations.) I'd love to see John Edwards as kingmaker with his handful of delegates.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:07 AM  

  • I think so. I think the media is being very careful right now, BUT.....

    By the nature of the cable news bloviators, that will fade. The news people my remain careful, but the Chris Matthews of the world will begin to find their unwarranted certainty and cast their pall. (probably not too much today, but by tomorrow.)

    And, being a Dem supporter, I think going to the convention would be a horrible thing. Think about the disadvantage of choosing your candidate only 12 weeks before the general election.

    All that fundraising money burned in the primary....

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 7:15 AM  

  • I'll drop a post on that

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 7:16 AM  

  • The political junkie in me loves the idea. The citizen hates it.
    1968 all over again? Yikes...

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:16 PM  

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