Comments on Born at the Crest of the Empire: The spin so far

Tom, I saw that, too. Part of the reason it can't...

2008-02-07T07:18:00.000-06:00

Tom, I saw that, too. Part of the reason it can't be reached in that 20% (?) of the total delegates are super delegates.

In other words, you gotta win 60% to lock it up before the convention.

(Is that math right?)

But, yeah, damn close.

I have a feeling that after Texas/Ohio, or maybe as late as Penn, we're going to have the sense of a clear winner, and at that point, there's going to be pressure for someone to step back.

Wow, that is just ridiculously close. I saw an in...

2008-02-07T00:11:00.000-06:00

Wow, that is just ridiculously close. I saw an interesting post somewhere about the math of the thing. It claimed that with some 40-50% already split down the middle, and 8-10% off the table (Michigan, Florida, and Edwards delegates), the margin needed in the remaining contests to reach 50%+1 is not likely to be achieved by either candidate.

So...if the candidates have reached their ceilings and are just fighting over a few percentage points, then it's the Doomsday Scenario. I tend to think, though, that a lot of support on both sides is soft.

You need to add in that he's picking up most of th...

2008-02-06T22:32:00.000-06:00

You need to add in that he's picking up most of the Edwards supporters. That's alot of the catchup.

I'm not so sure about the ceiling arguments either way because, broadly, Dems are reasonably happy with either choice. So, I'd argue that it's tussle, not ceiling.

And, as I said in a post a bit below, after SC, the Clinton campaign is on kind of a probation after SC, so they can't be too attributably dirty. Obama might, but does he monkey with the system when he's got the mo?

Obama has the momentum and has narrowed the gap (t...

2008-02-06T20:43:00.000-06:00

Obama has the momentum and has narrowed the gap (to zero?) with Clinton. But he's done this by winning the undecideds and (probably) a large number of supporters of candidates no longer in the race, not by eroding Clinton's base. Clinton doesn't seem to be losing any support. Her base seems committed and intractable.

Does this mean there's a ceiling for Obama? That he has to start pealing away Clinton supporters in order to lock this up before the convention? Likewise, Hillary has to start adding to her establishment base in order to do the same. I think we're going to see some "negative" campaigning in the next few weeks.